Match Info

Campeonato de Portugal - Group B - Round 6

Date: 5 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio do Leca Futebol Clube (Leca da Palmeira)


	Leça		Gouveia

	1	X	2
	1.17	5.78	12.74
	1.34	4.83	7.34	Watch
	1.21	5.5	11.1
	1.38	3.8	8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.28 ↓ (1.55)	4.98 ↑ (3.5)	9.8 ↑ (5.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leça
72.1%

Draw
18.5%

Gouveia
9.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58%

25.7%

16.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.1%

20.4%

20.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leça has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Leça's performance.

Gouveia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Gouveia might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leça than the current prediction. (-26%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Leça that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gouveia than the current prediction. (+11.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Gouveia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Leça - Gouveia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (3 - 0)
65', 1 - 0, ⚽,
68', 2 - 0, ⚽,
90+3', 3 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 10 in the zone Relegation and 14 in the zone Relegation).

Leça has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Gouveia is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Gouveia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Leça is seen as the favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Leça won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:1. (average 2.5:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Leça won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leça FC
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
28.09.25	União Lamas - Leça	2:1 ✺
14.09.25	Leça - Alpendorada	0:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
31.08.25	Rebordosa - Leça	2:0 ✺
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
24.08.25	Cinfães - Leça	1:1 ✺
17.08.25	Leça - Florgrade	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 LTLTW
- CD Gouveia
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
28.09.25	Gouveia - Vila Real	0:5 ✺
Taça de Portugal
21.09.25	Rebordelo - Gouveia	3:2 penalties ✺
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
14.09.25	Rebordosa - Gouveia	4:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
31.08.25	Gouveia - Beira-Mar	4:2 ET ✺
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
24.08.25	Gouveia - Aparecida	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
06.03.22	Gouveia - Leça	1:1
12.12.21	Leça - Gouveia	4:0

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