Match Info

Promotion League

Date: 25 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished


	Lugano II		Bellinzona

	1	X	2
	2.50	3.40	2.35
	2.42	3.4	2.4
	2.64	3.65	2.35
	2.59	3.76	2.4	Watch
	2.6	3.6	2.3
	2.46	3.73	2.54
	2.55	3.45	2.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.54 ↑ (2.47)	3.57 ↑ (3.47)	2.37 ↓ (2.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lugano II
36%

Draw
25.6%

Bellinzona
38.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

36.6%

26.1%

37.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.3%

25.9%

37.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lugano II has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Bellinzona has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lugano II than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bellinzona than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Lugano II - Bellinzona Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
38', 1 - 0, Raffa C. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
90', 1 - 1, Ceppelini P. ⚽,

Preview

A direct clash near the foot of the table where neither side can afford to drop points (ranked 14th and 17th in the Relegation).

Recent results have been tough for Lugano II (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Performances by Bellinzona have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Lugano II could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Recently, Bellinzona has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 1 head-to-head meeting, Lugano II has recorded 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 1:6.

Specifically in home fixtures for Lugano II against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 1:6 goals.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
15	Lugano II	13	4	1	8	20:27	-7	13
16	Bellinzona	13	2	3	8	10:25	-15	9

Last Results with these Odds

Lugano II - the odds 2.47 are the expected chance of winning is 36.63%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Bellinzona - the odds 2.43 are the expected chance of winning is 37.28%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Lugano II
Swiss Promotion League
17.10.26	Grand-Saconnex - Lugano II	1:2 ✺
11.10.26	Lugano II - Kreuzlingen	2:3 ✺
03.10.26	Paradiso - Lugano II	1:0 ✺
26.09.26	Lugano II - Cham	0:1 ✺
19.09.26	Schaffhausen - Lugano II	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WLLLL
- AC Bellinzona
Swiss Promotion League
21.10.26	Bellinzona - Brühl	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
16.10.26	Bellinzona - Collina dOro	2:0 ✺
Swiss Promotion League
04.10.26	Bellinzona - Zurich II	0:4 ✺
27.09.26	Bellinzona - Breitenrain Bern	2:2 ✺
05.09.26	Paradiso - Bellinzona	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WWLTL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
29.06.22	Lugano II - Bellinzona	1:6

Lugano II - Bellinzona