Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 7 - Round 7

Date: 18 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished


	Móstoles URJC		Galapagar

	1	X	2
	1.68	3.50	4.20
	1.65	3.45	4.3
	1.78	3.54	4.05
	1.76	3.66	4.09	Watch
	1.75	3.5	4
	1.81	3.6	4.02
	1.7	3.5	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 ↑ (1.54)	3.54 ↓ (3.6)	4.07 ↓ (4.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Móstoles URJC
52.2%

Draw
25.6%

Galapagar
22.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

56.5%

24.2%

19.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.3%

23.1%

18.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Móstoles URJC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

Galapagar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Móstoles URJC than the current prediction. (+7.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Móstoles URJC, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Galapagar than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

Móstoles URJC - Galapagar Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
3', 1 - 0, Acuna T. ⚽,
20', 2 - 0, Diaz Hervas J. ⚽,
43', 3 - 0, Diaz Hervas J. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

An exciting matchup between two close rivals in the standings (ranked 7th and 5th in the Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 7 Playoffs).

Both teams have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.

Bookmakers give the edge to Móstoles for this game.

In the last 5 head-to-head meetings, Móstoles has recorded 3 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 5:1 (averaging 1:0.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Móstoles against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 3:0 goals (averaging 1:0 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	CD Mostoles	8	5	2	1	16:5	11	17
5	Galapagar	8	4	2	2	17:14	3	14

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Móstoles URJC
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 7
11.10.26	Unión Adarve - Móstoles URJC	2:1 ✺
04.10.26	Móstoles URJC - Leganés B	1:1 ✺
27.09.26	Torrejón - Móstoles URJC	0:1 ✺
13.09.26	Fuenlabrada - Móstoles URJC	1:3 ✺
06.09.26	Móstoles URJC - Rayo Vallecano B	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 LTWWT
- CD Galapagar
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 7
11.10.26	Leganés B - Galapagar	2:3 ✺
04.10.26	Galapagar - Cala Pozuelo	1:3 ✺
27.09.26	Rayo Vallecano B - Galapagar	1:2 ✺
20.09.26	Galapagar - Las Rozas	1:1 ✺
06.09.26	Galapagar - Pozuelo de Alarcón	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.3 WLWTT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 7
22.02.26	Galapagar - Móstoles URJC	1:1
12.10.25	Móstoles URJC - Galapagar	1:0
07.01.24	Móstoles URJC - Galapagar	0:0
22.01.23	Móstoles URJC - Galapagar	2:0
18.09.22	Galapagar - Móstoles URJC	0:1

Móstoles URJC - Galapagar