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Current Win Probability
Madrid CFF 24.2%
Draw 26.9%
Athletic Bilbao 49%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
32.3%
27.8%
39.9%
Our Initial ML Estimation
32%
28.1%
40.3%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Madrid CFF has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.1%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Madrid CFF's form might have worsened.
Athletic Bilbao has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.1%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Athletic Bilbao's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Madrid CFF than the current prediction. (+7.8%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Madrid CFF, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletic Bilbao than the current prediction. (-8.7%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Athletic Bilbao, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Madrid CFF - Athletic Bilbao Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Ulloa P. (C) 4. Villafane S. 2. Taylor K. 12. Lejeune R. 28. Hernandez S. 21. Rivas M. 10. Debora Bebe 6. Gonzalez Rosa A. 8. Holt E. 23. Nautnes E. 7. Ouzraoui S.
13. Nanclares A. (G) 3. Landaluze N. 2. Torre Larranaga M. 4. Bibi 12. Facila G. 20. Elexpuru A. 6. Oguiza I. 5. Valero M. 7. Amezaga J. 11. Azkona A. (C) 18. Ortega S.
Substitutes
29. Aymerich M. 13. de Gracia B. (G) 17. Herrera A. 9. Leon P. 11. Ruiz A. 24. Ubamba H.
17. Agote D. 23. Arana E. 1. Astralaga E. (G) 8. Campos A. 33. Gurtubay E. 16. Iribarren 22. Martinez A. 19. Vilarino M. 10. Zugasti P.
Coaches
Sanchez J.
Martin V.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 0)
32', Amezaga J. 🟨,
34', Holt E. 🟨,
43', 1 - 0, Nautnes E. ⚽, Rivas M. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Holt E. ↓, Ruiz A. ↑,
46', Gonzalez Rosa A. 🟨,
47', 1 - 1, Bibi ⚽,
56', Amezaga J. ↓, Agote D. ↑,
62', 1 - 2, Bibi ⚽,
67', Valero M. 🟨,
71', Oguiza I. ↓, Gurtubay E. ↑,
71', Azkona A. ↓, Zugasti P. ↑,
71', Rivas M. ↓, Ubamba H. ↑,
73', 2 - 2, Ouzraoui S. ⚽, Ubamba H. (A),
83', Elexpuru A. 🟨,
86', Ouzraoui S. ↓, Aymerich M. ↑,
87', Villafane S. 🟨,
90', Nautnes E. ↓, Leon P. ↑,
90+2', Elexpuru A. ↓, Campos A. ↑,
90+2', Landaluze N. ↓, Vilarino M. ↑,
Preview
A clash between two contenders competing at the top of the table (ranked 3rd and 4th).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Madrid CFF won 1.
Both teams enter this match with positive momentum from recent weeks.
A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Athletic holding a narrow advantage.
In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Madrid CFF has recorded 8 wins, 1 draw, and 11 losses, with a goal aggregate of 23:31 (averaging 1.2:1.6 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Madrid CFF against this opponent, the record stands at 5 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses, with 13:10 goals (averaging 1.4:1.1 per game).
Spain
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Ulloa P. (C) 
Taylor K. 
Lejeune R. 
Debora Bebe 
Holt E. 
Nautnes E. 
Ouzraoui S. 
Bibi 
Herrera A. 
Ubamba H. 
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