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Current Win Probability
Maranhão 40.2%
Draw 30.1%
Ferroviário Fortaleza 29.7%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
52.1%
27.5%
20.4%
Our Initial ML Estimation
53.9%
26.6%
19.7%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Maranhão has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.9%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Maranhão's form might have worsened.
Ferroviário Fortaleza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.3%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ferroviário Fortaleza's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Maranhão than the current prediction. (+13.7%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Maranhão, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ferroviário Fortaleza than the current prediction. (-10%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ferroviário Fortaleza, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Maranhão - Ferroviário Fortaleza Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Jean (G) 6. Andre Radija 2. Ball S. 19. Felipe Cruz 7. Felipe Sales 18. Keven 5. Railson 22. Rodrigo 4. Tiburcio 20. Vagalume 17. Will
1. Victor Brasil (G) 18. Camilo 7. Carlinhos 2. Geo J. 4. Iago Reis (C) 5. Luan 8. Lucas Black 16. Mena Y. 6. Pedrinho 20. Rosa B. 3. Tiago Santana
Substitutes
3. Fernando 21. Joelson 10. Jorge Rocha . Lucao 13. Luis Fernando 26. Luis Gustavo 25. Maranhao M. 11. Pimentinha . Rafael Teixeira 15. Rosivan 8. Vander 12. Victor Guilherme (G)
15. Fernando Portel 11. Pablinho 13. Pablo Maldini 21. Paulo Ricardo 22. Raphael Freitas 23. Silvano Verissimo S. 93. Sivaldo Junior (G)
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 2)
12', 0 - 1, Carlinhos ⚽,
21', Luan 🟨,
30', Lucas Black 🟨,
43', 0 - 2, Pedrinho ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Vagalume ↓, Luis Gustavo ↑,
46', Will ↓, Rafael Teixeira ↑,
46', Felipe Sales ↓, Pimentinha ↑,
46', Rodrigo ↓, Rosivan ↑,
52', 🟨,
56', 1 - 2, Andre Radija (Penalty Awarded),
61', 1 - 3, Carlinhos ⚽,
68', Luan ↓, Fernando Portel ↑,
68', Felipe Cruz ↓, Jorge Rocha ↑,
71', 2 - 3, Jorge Rocha ⚽,
74', Railson 🟨,
77', Tiago Santana 🟨,
84', Camilo ↓, Pablo Maldini ↑,
88', Mena Y. ↓, Paulo Ricardo ↑,
Preview
Maranhão is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Ferroviário's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
Maranhão may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
Recently, Ferroviário has had a series of home games.
In this match, Maranhão is considered a favorite.
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Maranhão won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:9. (average 1:1.8).
Including home matches between the teams, Maranhão won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:4. (average 1:1.3).
Watch
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Jean (G) 
Mena Y. 
Fernando 
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