Match Info

Copa do Nordeste - Round 1

Date: 24 March 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Presidente Vargas (Fortaleza)


	Ferroviário Fortaleza		Fortaleza

	1	X	2
	4.5	4.1	1.53
	5.5	3.9	1.52
	5.3	3.8	1.52
	6.1	3.85	1.56
	5.73	3.9	1.52	Watch
	5.5	3.5	1.53
	5.49	3.64	1.55	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.45 ↑ (5)	3.81 ↓ (4)	1.53 ↑ (1.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ferroviário Fortaleza
16.7%

Draw
23.9%

Fortaleza
59.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

17.9%

22.4%

59.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.7%

22.1%

60.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ferroviário Fortaleza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Fortaleza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ferroviário Fortaleza than the current prediction. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Ferroviário Fortaleza - Fortaleza Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Victor Brasil (G) 14. Bruno Miranda 7. Carlinhos 2. Geo J. 4. Iago Reis 9. Jefinho 5. Luan 8. Lucas Black 16. Mena Y. 6. Pedrinho 20. Rosa B.	25. Vinicius Silvestre (G) 36. Guilherme 4. Luan Freitas 38. Lucca Prior 19. Luquinhas 28. Paulinho 77. Paulo Baya 33. Rocha K. 75. Rodriguinho 8. Ronald 31. Welliton
Substitutes
18. Camilo 33. Daniel 19. Diego 15. Fernando Portel 3. Leo Paraiso 11. Pablinho 13. Pablo Maldini 21. Paulo Ricardo 22. Raphael 23. Saulo 93. Sivaldo Junior (G)	35. Bruninho 21. GB 43. Joao Lucas 1. Joao Ricardo (G) 99. Kayke 10. Lucas Crispim 15. Magrao (G) 20. Matheus Rossetto 9. Miritello J. B. 29. Rodrigo 37. Ryan 11. Vitinho

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
3', 0 - 1, Welliton ⚽,
10', Rodriguinho 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Carlinhos ↓, Paulo Ricardo ↑,
48', Welliton 🟨,
50', Iago Reis 🟨,
62', Jefinho ↓, Camilo ↑,
62', Ronald ↓, Bruninho ↑,
63', Lucca Prior ↓, Ryan ↑,
69', Iago Reis ↓, Leo Paraiso ↑,
69', Luan ↓, Fernando Portel ↑,
70', Luquinhas ↓, Miritello J. B. ↑,
70', Welliton ↓, Lucas Crispim ↑,
72', Bruninho 🟨,
80', Paulinho ↓, Rodrigo ↑,
82', Rosa B. ↓, Pablo Maldini ↑,
90', Ryan 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ferroviário won 0.

In recent matches, Ferroviário has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Fortaleza is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Fortaleza may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Fortaleza has had a series of away games.

In this match, Fortaleza is the team to beat.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ferroviário won 2 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 9:28. (average 0.5:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Ferroviário won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:8. (average 0.7:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ferroviário Fortaleza
Brazilian Campeonato Cearense
26.02.26	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Floresta	1:0 ✺
21.02.26	Fortaleza - Ferroviário Fortaleza	2:0 ✺
14.02.26	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Fortaleza	0:2 ✺
07.02.26	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Iguatu	2:0 ✺
02.02.26	Floresta - Ferroviário Fortaleza	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 WLLWT
- Fortaleza EC
Brazilian Serie B
21.03.26	Botafogo SP - Fortaleza	4:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
17.03.26	Nova Iguaçu - Fortaleza	0:1 ✺
11.03.26	Manauara - Fortaleza	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Cearense
08.03.26	Ceará - Fortaleza	1:2 penalties ✺
01.03.26	Fortaleza - Ceará	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 LWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Cearense
21.02.26	Fortaleza - Ferroviário Fortaleza	2:0
14.02.26	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Fortaleza	0:2
11.01.26	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Fortaleza	0:0
08.03.25	Fortaleza - Ferroviário Fortaleza	1:0
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
05.03.25	Fortaleza - Ferroviário Fortaleza	4:0
Brazilian Campeonato Cearense
01.03.25	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Fortaleza	0:0
07.02.24	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Fortaleza	1:1

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