Match Info

J3 League - Round 6

Date: 13 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Sunpro Alwin (Matsumoto)

Where to Watch on TV:


Japan	DAZN Japan
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Matsumoto Yamaga		Sagamihara

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.10	2.90
	2.25	3.10	2.80
	2.28	3.41	3.02
	2.35	3.23	2.99	Watch
	2.18	3.35	2.95
	2.24	3.43	3.02	Watch
	2.21	3.20	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.24 ↓ (2.25)	3.26 ↑ (3.15)	2.95 ↑ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.75

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matsumoto Yamaga
40.9%

Draw
28.1%

Sagamihara
31%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

39.7%

28.4%

31.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.9%

27.6%

31%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matsumoto Yamaga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Sagamihara has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

The ML Model estimate for Matsumoto Yamaga aligns with the current prediction.

The ML Model estimate for Sagamihara aligns with the current prediction.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Matsumoto Yamaga - Sagamihara Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Matsumoto Yamaga will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Sagamihara will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Tomizawa M. (G) 6. Noda H. 43. Kaneko K. 16. Miyabe T. 14. Rikiyasu S. 30. Kitazume K. 46. Yasunaga R. 8. Sawazaki R. 15. Takano R. 11. Kaneko S. 17. Taguchi Y.	21. Kim Min-ho (G) 19. Okita S. 3. Pytlik K. 13. Tokida M. 2. Watahiki K. 4. Shimakawa T. 17. Takeuchi T. 10. Nakayama R. 7. Tanahashi A. 24. Sugimoto R. 9. Sasaki K.
Substitutes
40. Higuchi D. 39. Inoue A. 23. Koma R. (G) 36. Matsumura G. 4. Minoda K. 13. Murakami H. 22. Saso K. 18. Sato R. 19. Tanaka S.	8. Kambe K. 20. Kawabata Y. 15. Maeda T. 1. Miura M. (G) 11. Muto Y. 22. Okuyama Y. 93. Phochai T. 6. Tokunaga Y. 5. Yamauchi R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
4', 0 - 1, Okita S. ⚽, Tanahashi A. (A),
20', 1 - 1, Kaneko S. ⚽,
36', 1 - 2, Okita S. ⚽, Nakayama R. (A),
40', Sasaki K. 🟨,
43', Pytlik K. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
52', 1 - 3, Okita S. ⚽, Watahiki K. (A),
53', Yasunaga R. ↓, Murakami H. ↑,
59', Sawazaki R. 🟨,
62', Kaneko S. ↓, Inoue A. ↑,
62', Sawazaki R. ↓, Sato R. ↑,
62', Taguchi Y. ↓, Tanaka S. ↑,
77', Nakayama R. ↓, Maeda T. ↑,
78', Sato R. 🟨,
81', Kitazume K. ↓, Higuchi D. ↑,
86', Okita S. ↓, Yamauchi R. ↑,
86', Sugimoto R. ↓, Kawabata Y. ↑,
90+3', Tanahashi A. ↓, Phochai T. ↑,
90+4', Yamauchi R. 🟨,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 15 and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Matsumoto Yamaga won 3.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Matsumoto Yamaga may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Matsumoto Yamaga has had a series of home games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Matsumoto Yamaga won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 22:12. (average 2.2:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Matsumoto Yamaga won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 13:6. (average 2.6:1.2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Sagamihara	10	5	3	2	18:12	6	18
13	Yamaga	10	2	5	3	9:11	-2	11

Last Results with these Odds

Matsumoto Yamaga - the odds 2.25 are the expected chance of winning is 39.72%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Sagamihara - the odds 2.8 are the expected chance of winning is 31.91%, but this team recently wins 45% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matsumoto Yamaga
Japan J League Cup
09.09.26	Matsumoto Yamaga - Shonan Bellmare	4:3 penalties ✺
Japan J3 League
05.09.26	Matsumoto Yamaga - Osaka	0:0 ✺
30.08.26	Giravanz Kitakyushu - Matsumoto Yamaga	1:1 ✺
22.08.26	Matsumoto Yamaga - Ehime	2:2 ✺
16.08.26	Matsumoto Yamaga - Reilac Shiga	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 WTTTL
- SC Sagamihara
Japan J3 League
05.09.26	Sagamihara - Nagano Parceiro	1:1 ✺
Japan J League Cup
02.09.26	Sagamihara - Júbilo Iwata	0:3 ✺
Japan J3 League
29.08.26	Ryūkyū - Sagamihara	2:1 ✺
15.08.26	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Sagamihara	1:4 ✺
08.08.26	Sagamihara - Roasso Kumamoto	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 TLLWT

Latest Head to Head

Japan J3 League
19.10.25	Sagamihara - Matsumoto Yamaga	1:0
23.03.25	Matsumoto Yamaga - Sagamihara	2:0
17.08.24	Matsumoto Yamaga - Sagamihara	3:2
22.06.24	Sagamihara - Matsumoto Yamaga	3:2
28.10.23	Sagamihara - Matsumoto Yamaga	0:2
03.06.23	Matsumoto Yamaga - Sagamihara	5:3
20.11.22	Matsumoto Yamaga - Sagamihara	1:0

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