The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Nagano Parceiro 24.7%
Draw 27.5%
Matsumoto Yamaga 47.8%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
30.8%
27.9%
41.2%
Our Initial ML Estimation
30%
27.2%
42.3%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Nagano Parceiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Nagano Parceiro's form might have worsened.
Matsumoto Yamaga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Matsumoto Yamaga's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nagano Parceiro than the current prediction. (+5.3%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Nagano Parceiro, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matsumoto Yamaga than the current prediction. (-5.5%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Matsumoto Yamaga, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Nagano Parceiro - Matsumoto Yamaga Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
21. Nakano K. (G) 24. Watanabe Z. 7. Ono Y. 13. Tsukegi Y. (C) 3. Tomita K. 10. Yamanaka R. 77. Morita D. 40. Hasegawa Y. 8. Kondo T. 28. Fujikawa K. 18. Yoshizawa S.
21. Tomizawa M. (G) 5. Shirai T. 4. Minoda K. (C) 6. Noda H. 43. Kaneko K. 30. Kitazume K. 36. Matsumura G. 13. Murakami H. 40. Higuchi D. 18. Sato R. 19. Tanaka S.
Substitutes
15. Higuchi K. 16. Ishii K. 14. Kutsuna K. 26. Nakata S. 11. Shin K. 19. Shoji H. 1. Tajiri K. (G) 25. Tanaka K. 22. Yoshida K.
38. Fujieda K. 39. Inoue A. 11. Kaneko S. 48. Kawakami K. 23. Koma R. (G) 16. Miyabe T. 22. Saso K. 8. Sawazaki R. 17. Taguchi Y.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (2 - 1)
2', 1 - 0, Yamanaka R. ⚽,
25', 1 - 1, Sato R. ⚽,
30', 2 - 1, Kondo T. ⚽, Fujikawa K. (A),
36', Morita D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Shirai T. ↓, Taguchi Y. ↑,
46', Kaneko K. ↓, Miyabe T. ↑,
59', Hasegawa Y. ↓, Yoshida K. ↑,
62', Kitazume K. ↓, Saso K. ↑,
67', Taguchi Y. 🟨,
71', Tomita K. ↓, Higuchi K. ↑,
71', Kondo T. ↓, Tanaka K. ↑,
73', Fujikawa K. 🟨,
77', Tanaka K. 🟨,
84', Tanaka S. ↓, Fujieda K. ↑,
84', Yoshizawa S. ↓, Shoji H. ↑,
84', Yamanaka R. ↓, Kutsuna K. ↑,
87', Murakami H. ↓, Inoue A. ↑,
Preview
Two mid-table squads battle for vital points to solidify their season (ranked 11th and 15th).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nagano won 2.
Both teams have experienced an unpredictable run of results lately.
Nagano could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.
Recently, Matsumoto Yamaga has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.
The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.
In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, Nagano has recorded 3 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 9:13 (averaging 0.9:1.3 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Nagano against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, with 4:7 goals (averaging 0.8:1.4 per game).
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
11
Nagano
13
5
2
6
17:19
-2
17
15
Yamaga
13
3
5
5
12:15
-3
14
Last Results with these Odds
Nagano Parceiro - the odds 2.9 are the expected chance of winning is 30.84%, but this team recently wins 36% of matches with these odds.
Matsumoto Yamaga - the odds 2.17 are the expected chance of winning is 41.21%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.
Japan
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Nakano K. (G) 
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