Match Info

J3 League - Round 5

Date: 5 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Sunpro Alwin (Matsumoto)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Matsumoto Yamaga		Osaka

	1	X	2
	2.10	3.10	3.10
	2.05	3.15	3.15
	2.13	3.4	3.33
	2.12	3.45	3.24	Watch
	2.08	3.35	3.15
	2.17	3.4	3.19	Watch
	2.08	3.25	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.1 ↓ (2.63)	3.3 ↑ (3.1)	3.19 ↑ (2.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matsumoto Yamaga
43.5%

Draw
27.8%

Osaka
28.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34%

28.8%

37.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matsumoto Yamaga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Matsumoto Yamaga's performance.

Osaka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Osaka might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	66.7%	0%

Matsumoto Yamaga - Osaka Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Matsumoto Yamaga will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Tomizawa M. (G) 6. Noda H. 43. Kaneko K. 16. Miyabe T. 14. Rikiyasu S. 30. Kitazume K. 46. Yasunaga R. 8. Sawazaki R. 15. Takano R. 11. Kaneko S. 17. Taguchi Y.	1. Sugawara H. (G) 2. Sakamoto K. 25. Kuwako R. 4. Yamashita R. 6. Tachino S. 10. Kubo R. 14. Sumida S. 11. Yoshida G. 17. Morimura S. 29. Sugawara R. 95. Isa K.
Substitutes
40. Higuchi D. 39. Inoue A. 23. Koma R. (G) 36. Matsumura G. 4. Minoda K. 13. Murakami H. 22. Saso K. 5. Shirai T. 19. Tanaka S.	15. Fukui K. 30. Han J. (G) 7. Kitsui T. 52. Kojima M. 5. Minakuchi Y. 78. Nagano S. 38. Ogawa S. 9. Shimada T. 99. Vinicius Souza

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
38', Morimura S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
57', Morimura S. ↓, Nagano S. ↑,
57', Isa K. ↓, Shimada T. ↑,
64', Kaneko S. ↓, Murakami H. ↑,
72', Kubo R. ↓, Fukui K. ↑,
73', Sugawara R. ↓, Kitsui T. ↑,
73', Taguchi Y. ↓, Tanaka S. ↑,
73', Sawazaki R. ↓, Inoue A. ↑,
85', Kitazume K. ↓, Saso K. ↑,
85', Takano R. ↓, Higuchi D. ↑,
89', Sumida S. ↓, Vinicius Souza ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Matsumoto Yamaga won 2.

Recent performances by Matsumoto Yamaga have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Osaka is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Matsumoto Yamaga may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Matsumoto Yamaga won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:6. (average 1:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Matsumoto Yamaga won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:2. (average 1.5:0.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Osaka	9	4	4	1	17:8	9	16
16	Yamaga	9	1	5	3	8:11	-3	8

Last Results with these Odds

Matsumoto Yamaga - the odds 2.63 are the expected chance of winning is 33.96%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matsumoto Yamaga
Japan J3 League
30.08.26	Giravanz Kitakyushu - Matsumoto Yamaga	1:1 ✺
22.08.26	Matsumoto Yamaga - Ehime	2:2 ✺
16.08.26	Matsumoto Yamaga - Reilac Shiga	2:3 ✺
08.08.26	Kochi United - Matsumoto Yamaga	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
25.07.26	Matsumoto Yamaga - Ventforet Kofu	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 TTLTW
- FC Osaka
Japan J League Cup
02.09.26	Osaka - Ventforet Kofu	3:0 ✺
Japan J3 League
30.08.26	Renofa Yamaguchi - Osaka	0:0 ✺
22.08.26	Osaka - Ryūkyū	2:2 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
19.08.26	Nara Club - Osaka	1:4 ✺
Japan J3 League
16.08.26	Osaka - Nagano Parceiro	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 WTTWW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J3 League
16.11.25	Matsumoto Yamaga - Osaka	1:1
Japan Emperors Cup
25.05.25	Matsumoto Yamaga - Osaka	2:1 ET
Japan J3 League
07.05.25	Osaka - Matsumoto Yamaga	1:0
14.07.24	Matsumoto Yamaga - Osaka	2:0
23.03.24	Osaka - Matsumoto Yamaga	0:0
03.09.23	Osaka - Matsumoto Yamaga	3:1
03.05.23	Matsumoto Yamaga - Osaka	1:0

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