Match Info

III Liga - Group I - Round 9

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday


	Mazovia Mińsk Mazowiecki		Wisła Płock II

	1	X	2
	1.80	3.75	3.30
	1.75	3.7	3.5
	1.78	3.86	3.45
	1.8	3.99	3.48	Watch
	1.75	3.8	3.4
	1.81	4.02	3.6	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.78 ↓ (2.16)	3.85 ↓ (3.93)	3.46 ↑ (2.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 7.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mazovia Mińsk Mazowiecki
50.6%

Draw
23.4%

Wisła Płock II
26.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.4%

23.3%

34.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.2%

22.4%

32.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mazovia Mińsk Mazowiecki has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Mazovia Mińsk Mazowiecki's performance.

Wisła Płock II has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Wisła Płock II might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mazovia Mińsk Mazowiecki than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Mazovia Mińsk Mazowiecki that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Wisła Płock II than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Wisła Płock II could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Mazovia Mińsk Mazowiecki - Wisła Płock II Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
26', 1 - 0, Sauczek C. ⚽,
43', 1 - 1, Rogowski N. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
55', 2 - 1, Sauczek C. ⚽,
65', 2 - 2, Misiak P. ⚽,
88', 3 - 2, Gilant A. ⚽,

Preview

One of the standout fixtures of the round, featuring two top-tier sides (ranked 2nd in the Promotion ~ Division 2 (Promotion ~ Playoffs and 4th).

Mazovia is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Performances by Wisła Płock II have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Wisła Płock II may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Wisła Płock II has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

These two teams have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	11	6	3	2	27:18	9	21
6	Plock II	11	5	3	3	22:18	4	18

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mazovia Mińsk Mazowiecki
Polish Division 3 - Group I
11.09.26	Widzew Łódź II - Mazovia Mińsk Mazowiecki	2:3 ✺
05.09.26	Mazovia Mińsk Mazowiecki - Olimpia Zambrów	5:0 ✺
29.08.26	Polonia Lidzbark Warmiński - Mazovia Mińsk Mazowiecki	2:2 ✺
22.08.26	Mazovia Mińsk Mazowiecki - Olimpia Elbląg	2:2 ✺
19.08.26	Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki - Mazovia Mińsk Mazowiecki	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WWTTW
- Wisła Płock II
Polish Division 3 - Group I
12.09.26	Wisła Płock II - ŁKS Łódź II	2:2 ✺
06.09.26	Widzew Łódź II - Wisła Płock II	0:2 ✺
Polish Cup
01.09.26	Wisła Płock II - Puszcza Niepołomice	0:2 ✺
Polish Division 3 - Group I
29.08.26	Wisła Płock II - Mławianka Mława	5:3 ✺
19.08.26	Wisła Płock II - ŁKS Łomża	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 TWLWT

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