Match Info

Division 3 - Group 2 - Round 21

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday


	Melhus		Spjelkavik

	1	X	2
	1.27	5.25	7.25
	1.23	5.55	7.60
	1.26	5.65	6.79
	1.27	5.8	7.5	Watch
	1.24	5.55	6.70
	1.25	5.45	8.00
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.25 ↓ (1.52)	5.54 ↑ (4.84)	7.31 ↑ (4.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.25

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Melhus
71.5%

Draw
16.2%

Spjelkavik
12.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.5%

19%

20.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51%

16%

24.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Melhus has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Melhus's performance.

Spjelkavik has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Spjelkavik might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Melhus than the current prediction. (-20.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Melhus that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Spjelkavik than the current prediction. (+11.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Spjelkavik could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Melhus - Spjelkavik Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
40', 0 - 1, Warholm R. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

An intriguing matchup between an upper-bracket team and a mid-table rival (ranked 3rd and 8th).

Melhus has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Spjelkavik has struggled for form in recent encounters (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Bookmakers give the edge to Melhus for this game.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Melhus has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 4:4 (averaging 2:2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Melhus against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 3:2 goals.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Melhus	22	11	5	6	52:28	24	38
8	Spjelkavik	22	8	4	10	41:48	-7	28

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Melhus IL
Norwegian Division 3 - Group 2
20.09.26	Molde 2 - Melhus	1:0 ✺
12.09.26	Melhus - Volda	1:2 ✺
05.09.26	Herd - Melhus	1:4 ✺
30.08.26	Melhus - Strindheim	0:1 ✺
15.08.26	Nardo - Melhus	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LLWLW
- Spjelkavik IL
Norwegian Division 3 - Group 2
21.09.26	Spjelkavik - Rosenborg II	0:4 ✺
14.09.26	Aalesunds 2 - Spjelkavik	3:2 ✺
05.09.26	Nardo - Spjelkavik	4:2 ✺
31.08.26	Spjelkavik - Molde 2	3:1 ✺
Norwegian NM Cup
22.08.26	Spjelkavik - Hødd	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Norwegian Division 3 - Group 2
27.09.25	Melhus - Spjelkavik	3:2
Norwegian Division 3 - Group 5
18.09.21	Spjelkavik - Melhus	2:1

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