Match Info

Seconde Ligue Women - Round 21

Date: 17 May 2026, Sunday


	Metz		Thonon Évian

	1	X	2
	2.02	3.35	3.1
	2.11	3.21	3.06
	2.12	3.24	3.19
	2.15	3	2.9
	2.1	3.28	3.12
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.1 ↓ (2.5)	3.22 ↓ (3.3)	3.07 ↑ (2.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Metz
42.8%

Draw
28%

Thonon Évian
29.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.5%

27.7%

35.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38%

26.6%

34.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Metz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Metz's performance.

Thonon Évian has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Thonon Évian might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Metz than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Thonon Évian than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Thonon Évian could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Metz - Thonon Évian Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
22', 1 - 0, ⚽,
28', 1 - 1, ⚽,
33', 1 - 2, ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 2)
50', 2 - 2, ⚽,
57', 2 - 3, ⚽,
59', 2 - 4, ⚽,
73', 3 - 4, ⚽,
90+5', 4 - 4, ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 10 and 7).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Metz won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1. (average 1:0.3).

Including home match between the teams, Metz won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Metz W	4	2	1	1	5:4	1	7
9	Thonon Evian W	3	0	1	2	2:4	-2	1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Metz Women
French Division 2 Women
02.05.26	Metz - Auxerre	3:1 ✺
25.04.26	Reims - Metz	4:1 ✺
05.04.26	Metz - Le Mans	3:0 ✺
29.03.26	Saint-Malo - Metz	2:0 ✺
22.03.26	Metz - Grenoble	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 WLWLT
- Thonon Évian Grand Genève FC
French Division 2 Women
02.05.26	Reims - Thonon Évian	0:2 ✺
26.04.26	Thonon Évian - Saint-Malo	1:2 ✺
05.04.26	Toulouse - Thonon Évian	2:0 ✺
29.03.26	Thonon Évian - Guingamp	2:0 ✺
22.03.26	Nice - Thonon Évian	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

French Division 2 Women
18.05.25	Thonon Évian - Metz	0:2
03.11.24	Metz - Thonon Évian	0:0
05.11.23	Thonon Évian - Metz	1:1

Metz - Thonon Évian: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide