Match Info

Gold Cup - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 28 June 2025, Saturday

Location: State Farm Stadium (Glendale, AZ)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Sporty TV, StarTimes App
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 2
Australia	ESPN, Foxtel Now, Kayo Sports
Austria	DAZN
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	OneSoccer, TLN, TSN 3, TSN 4, Univision Canada, VIVA
China	ZhiBo8
Colombia	ESPN 2, ESPN
Germany	DAZN Deutsch, Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Malaysia	Astro Football, Astro Go, Sooka
Mexico	Canal 5, TUDN, VIX+, ViX Premium
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 1
New-zealand	ESPN
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN Caribbean, ESPN Norte
Peru	Disney+
Portugal	Sport TV1
Saudi-arabia	Aloula, KSA Sports 1
Singapore	HUB Sports 2
South-america	ESPN 2 South, ViX Latin America
South-korea	Sky Sports Korea
Spain	Gol Play, GolStadium
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Ukraine	Maincast
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Fox Sports 1, Fox Sports App, Foxsports.com, Fubo Sports Network, Tubi TV, TUDN App, TUDN, Univision
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
World	VIX App


	Mexico		Saudi Arabia

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.44	4.2	7.25
				Watch
	1.56	3.95	6.98
				Watch
	1.44	3.9	7
	1.53	3.99	6.95	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.49 ↑ (1.46)	4.01 ↓ (4.18)	7.05 ↓ (7.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mexico
63.1%

Draw
23.5%

Saudi Arabia
13.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.4%

22.5%

13.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.5%

21.8%

12.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mexico has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Saudi Arabia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mexico than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Saudi Arabia than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
69.2%	15.4%	15.4%

Mexico - Saudi Arabia Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Mexico will win (votes: 8 - 66.7%). Saudi Arabia will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mexico: 40% – 93.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Mexico (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Saudi Arabia (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Saudi Arabia (2.76) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Mexico (votes: 6 - 54.5%). Saudi Arabia (votes: 3 - 27.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Malagon L. (G) Club America 22. Araujo J. Bournemouth 5. Vasquez J. Genoa 25. Alvarado R. Guadalajara Chivas 23. Gallardo J. Toluca 4. Alvarez E. (C) West Ham 6. Lira E. Cruz Azul 7. Mora G. Club Tijuana 10. Vega A. Toluca 9. Jimenez R. Fulham 14. Ruiz M. Toluca	1. Al Aqidi N. (G) Al Fateh 26. Majrashi A. Al Ahli SC 4. Al Amri A. Al Ittihad 5. Madu A. Al Ettifaq FC 13. Boushal N. Al Nassr 16. Al Johani Z. Al Ahli SC 6. Al Hassan A. Al Nassr 12. Abdulhamid S. AS Roma 11. Al Shehri S. (C) Al Ittihad 9. Al Buraikan F. Al Ahli SC 24. Al Oboud A. Al Ittihad
Substitutes
26. Chavez Garcia M. Tapatio 11. Gimenez S. AC Milan 21. Huerta Valera C. S. Anderlecht 13. Ochoa G. (G) AFS 19. Orozco J. Cruz Azul 17. Pineda O. AEK 16. Quinones J. Al Qadisiya 12. Rangel R. (G) Guadalajara Chivas 15. Reyes I. Club America 8. Rodriguez C. Cruz Azul 2. Sanchez J. Cruz Azul 18. Sepulveda A. Cruz Azul	19. Al Ammar T. Al Qadisiya 23. Al Asmari A. Neom SC 10. Al Ghamdi F. Beerschot VA 7. Ali M. Al Ettifaq FC 22. Al Kassar A. (G) Al Qadisiya 18. Al Saad M. Dunkerque 8. Al Sahafi M. Beerschot VA 20. Al Salem A. Al Khaleej 21. Al Sanbi A. (G) Al Ahli SC 2. Al Shanqiti M. Al Ittihad 17. Sulaiman M. Al Ahli SC 15. Yahya A. Al Nassr
Coaches
Aguirre J.	Renard H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
45+8', Gallardo J. 🟨,
45+8', Majrashi A. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
50', 1 - 0, Vega A. ⚽,
53', Al Amri A. ↓, Sulaiman M. ↑,
60', Gallardo J. ↓, Chavez Garcia M. ↑,
60', Jimenez R. ↓, Gimenez S. ↑,
69', Al Shehri S. ↓, Al Ammar T. ↑,
69', Majrashi A. ↓, Al Sahafi M. ↑,
69', Al Oboud A. ↓, Al Salem A. ↑,
73', Vega A. ↓, Quinones J. ↑,
73', Mora G. ↓, Rodriguez C. ↑,
78', Al Johani Z. 🟨,
81', 2 - 0, Madu A. (Own goal),
85', Alvarado R. ↓, Pineda O. ↑,
88', Al Hassan A. ↓, Al Ghamdi F. ↑,

Preview

Mexico is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Saudi Arabia's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Mexico is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Mexico won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mexico
Gold Cup
22.06.25	Mexico - Costa Rica	0:0 ✺
18.06.25	Suriname - Mexico	0:2 ✺
14.06.25	Mexico - Dominican Republic	3:2 ✺
Friendly
10.06.25	Mexico - Turkey	1:0 ✺
07.06.25	Mexico - Switzerland	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 TWWWL
- Saudi Arabia
Gold Cup
22.06.25	Saudi Arabia - Trinidad & Tobago	1:1 ✺
19.06.25	Saudi Arabia - USA	0:1 ✺
15.06.25	Haiti - Saudi Arabia	0:1 ✺
FIFA World Cup
10.06.25	Saudi Arabia - Australia	1:2 ✺
05.06.25	Bahrain - Saudi Arabia	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 TLWLW

Latest Head to Head

FIFA World Cup
30.11.22	Saudi Arabia - Mexico	1:2

Mexico - Saudi Arabia: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide