Match Info

Super League - Round 17

Date: 18 January 2026, Sunday


	Mombasa United		Kibera Black Stars

	1	X	2
	3.23	2.75	2.41	Watch
	2.18	3.08	3.15
	2.1	3	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.5 ↑ (2.1)	2.94 ↓ (3)	2.89 ↓ (3.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mombasa United
36.8%

Draw
31.3%

Kibera Black Stars
31.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.1%

29.4%

28.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.8%

31.3%

26.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mombasa United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Mombasa United's form might have worsened.

Kibera Black Stars has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mombasa United than the current prediction. (+8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mombasa United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kibera Black Stars than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Kibera Black Stars, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Mombasa United - Kibera Black Stars Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 6 and 5).

Mombasa United has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Kibera has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, Mombasa United has had a series of away games.

Mombasa United could have a small edge in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Standings

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Mombasa United	36	23	3	10	49:31	18	72
9	Kibera	36	15	8	13	31:30	1	53

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mombasa United
Kenyan Super League
11.01.26	Soy United - Mombasa United	1:0 ✺
17.12.25	Mombasa United - Mwatate United	3:0 ✺
12.12.25	Migori Youth - Mombasa United	3:2 ✺
02.12.25	Nairobi City Stars - Mombasa United	1:0 ✺
29.11.25	MOFA - Mombasa United	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LWLLL
- Kibera Black Stars
Kenyan Super League
11.01.26	Kibera Black Stars - Luanda Villa	2:1 ✺
17.12.25	Kibera Black Stars - Migori Youth	1:0 ✺
07.12.25	Kibera Black Stars - Mwatate United	2:1 ✺
04.12.25	3K - Kibera Black Stars	2:0 ✺
30.11.25	Kabati - Kibera Black Stars	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WWWLL

Mombasa United - Kibera Black Stars: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide