Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 14 - Round 8

Date: 26 October 2025, Sunday


	Montijo		Llerenense

	1	X	2
	2.62	2.82	2.62
	1.37	4.27	8.56	Watch
	2.6	2.86	2.67
	2.56	2.96	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.29 ↓ (2.34)	3.23 ↑ (3.08)	4.14 ↑ (2.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Montijo
44.2%

Draw
31.3%

Llerenense
24.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.8%

29.5%

31.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.7%

28.8%

31%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Montijo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Montijo's performance.

Llerenense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Llerenense might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Montijo than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Llerenense than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Llerenense could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Montijo - Llerenense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
5', 1 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
80', 2 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 9 and 15).

Montijo has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Llerenense is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Montijo won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 1:8. (average 0.3:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Montijo won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 0:3. (average 0:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Montijo
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 14
19.10.25	Montijo - Badajoz	1:2 ✺
12.10.25	Montijo - Pueblonuevo	1:0 ✺
05.10.25	Jerez - Montijo	1:3 ✺
28.09.25	Moralo - Montijo	4:2 ✺
21.09.25	Montijo - Diocesano	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 LWWLT
- AD Llerenense
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 14
19.10.25	Llerenense - Moralo	0:0 ✺
12.10.25	Diocesano - Llerenense	2:1 ✺
05.10.25	Llerenense - Villafranca	0:1 ✺
28.09.25	Don Benito - Llerenense	1:0 ✺
14.09.25	Azuaga - Llerenense	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 TLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 14
27.04.25	Llerenense - Montijo	2:0
15.12.24	Montijo - Llerenense	0:2
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
28.04.24	Llerenense - Montijo	3:1
17.12.23	Montijo - Llerenense	0:1

Montijo - Llerenense: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide