Match Info

African Nations Championship - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 26 August 2025, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Nelson Mandela National Stadium (Kampala) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Andorra	19:30	beIN Sports 1
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 6, TOD
Finland	20:30	Veikkaus TV
France	19:30	beIN Sports 1
Laos	00:30	beIN Connect
New Zealand	05:30	beIN Connect
South Africa	19:30	SABC Plus
Thailand	00:30	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX


	Morocco		Senegal

	1	X	2
	1.85	2.63	6	Watch
	2.05	3	3.8
	1.88	2.72	5.4	Watch
	1.9	2.66	6.14
	1.95	2.68	5.62	Watch
	2.1	2.8	3.6
	1.91	2.71	6.2	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 ↓ (2.1)	2.74 ↓ (2.88)	5.25 ↑ (3.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.50

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Morocco
48%

Draw
34.1%

Senegal
17.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

43.5%

31.7%

24.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.8%

30.8%

24%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Morocco has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

Senegal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Senegal might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Morocco than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Senegal than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Senegal could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
72.7%	18.2%	9.1%

Morocco - Senegal Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Morocco will win (votes: 8 - 72.7%). Senegal will win (votes: 1 - 9.1%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Morocco: 46.4% – 99%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Morocco (1.45) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Morocco (3.08) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - draw (5.78) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Morocco will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Morocco (votes: 8 - 88.9%). Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:-1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Al Harrar E. M. (G) Raja Casablanca 3. Bach A. FAR Rabat 26. Baba K. Difaa El Jadidi 28. Mchakhchekh M. Raja Casablanca 17. Belammari Y. Raja Casablanca 21. Mehri Y. Berkane 24. Hrimat M. (C) FAR Rabat 10. Bougrine S. Raja Casablanca 7. Boulacsout M. Raja Casablanca 9. Lamlioui O. Berkane 4. Louadni M. FAR Rabat	16. Diouf M. P. A. (G) Teungueth 22. Ba D. 15. Ciss B. (C) 2. Ndiaye S. M. 13. Samb L. Teungueth 11. Ba O. US Goree 17. Ly M. Y. 7. Gueye L. Pontevedra 6. Cisse M. Generation Foot 9. Gomis C. Winterthur 10. Koita M. ASC Jaraaf
Substitutes
13. Arrassi B. Raja Casablanca 23. Bouhra S. Wydad Athletic 11. El Kaabi Y. RAC Casablanca 25. El Mahraoui A. COD Meknes 16. Errahouli S. Olympique de Safi 12. Ghanimi R. (G) FUS Rabat 5. Khairi A. Berkane 20. Moufid M. Wydad Athletic 8. Ouarkhane Alt K. FAR Rabat 18. Riahi I. Berkane 14. Souane A. FUS Rabat 2. Zahouani F. Union Touarga	24. Badji P. Smouha 19. Boye I. Diambars de Saly 25. Cisse V. US Goree 12. Coly A. AJEL 8. Fonseca B. Ouakam 20. Kane I. 23. Lo Ndoye C. (G) ASC Jaraaf 3. Ndiaye M. Motor Lublin 21. Niang A. ASC Jaraaf 18. Sarr A. ASC Jaraaf 4. Seck O. AJEL 14. Sembene E. H. M.
Coaches
Sektioui T.	Diallo S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
8', Cisse M. 🟨,
16', 0 - 1, Samb L. ⚽, Gueye L. (A),
23', 1 - 1, Bougrine S. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Gomis C. ↓, Cisse V. ↑,
47', Koita M. 🟨,
53', Louadni M. 🟨,
65', Baba K. ↓, Errahouli S. ↑,
65', Mchakhchekh M. ↓, Khairi A. ↑,
77', Koita M. ↓, Sarr A. ↑,
77', Gueye L. ↓, Boye I. ↑,
84', Cisse M. ↓, Fonseca B. ↑,
90+1', Ba O. ↓, Niang A. ↑,
Extra Time (0 - 0)
97', Bougrine S. ↓, Moufid M. ↑,
99', Ly M. Y. ↓, Kane I. ↑,
Penalties (5 - 3)
1, Hrimat M. (Pen),
1, Ndiaye S. M. (Pen),
2, Lamlioui O. (Pen),
2, Cisse V. (Pen),
3, Khairi A. (Pen),
3, Ciss B. (Pen),
4, Bach A. (Pen),
4, Ba D. (Pen),
5, Mehri Y. (Pen),

Preview

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

Senegal may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Morocco might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Morocco won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Morocco
African Nations Championship
22.08.25	Tanzania - Morocco	0:1 ✺
17.08.25	D.R. Congo - Morocco	1:3 ✺
14.08.25	Morocco - Zambia	3:1 ✺
10.08.25	Kenya - Morocco	1:0 ✺
03.08.25	Morocco - Angola	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WWWLW
- Senegal
African Nations Championship
23.08.25	Uganda - Senegal	0:1 ✺
19.08.25	Sudan - Senegal	0:0 ✺
12.08.25	Senegal - Congo	1:1 ✺
05.08.25	Senegal - Nigeria	1:0 ✺
Friendly
07.07.25	Senegal - Guinea	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 WTTWW

Latest Head to Head

Friendly
09.10.20	Morocco - Senegal	3:1
25.05.12	Morocco - Senegal	0:1

Morocco - Senegal