Match Info

African Nations Championship - Play Offs - 3rd place

Date: 29 August 2025, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Nelson Mandela National Stadium (Kampala) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	New World Sport 5, SuperSport Maximo 3
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, beIN Sports MENA 6
Australia	01:00	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect
Canada	11:00	beIN Connect
Finland	18:00	Veikkaus TV
France	17:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Free
Hong Kong	23:00	beIN Sports 3
Indonesia	22:00	beIN Connect
Laos	22:00	beIN Connect
Malaysia	23:00	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
New Zealand	03:00	beIN Connect
Philippines	23:00	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Singapore	23:00	beIN SPORTS MAX
South Africa	17:00	SABC Plus, SuperSport Variety 4
Thailand	22:00	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Usa	11:00	beIN Connect, Fanatiz, Tubi TV


	Sudan		Senegal

	1	X	2
	3	2.63	2.5	Watch
	3.2	3.2	2.2
	2.98	2.68	2.62	Watch
	3.01	2.78	2.59
	1.62	3.51	6.21	Watch
	3.15	2.88	2.61	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.83 ↓ (3.19)	2.95 ↓ (2.98)	3.12 ↑ (2.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sudan
34.9%

Draw
33.5%

Senegal
31.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

28.5%

30.5%

41%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.6%

29.6%

42.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sudan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sudan's performance.

Senegal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Senegal might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sudan than the current prediction. (-7.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sudan that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Senegal than the current prediction. (+10.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Senegal could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	100%	0%

Sudan - Senegal Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Abooja M. (G) 9. Awad Y. Al-Hilal Omdurman 3. Saeed Ahmed M. Al-Hilal Omdurman 4. Abaker A. Al-Hilal Omdurman 22. Abdalla F. Al-Hilal Omdurman 17. Alrashed M. Al-Merreikh 5. Walieldin Khidir (C) Al-Hilal Omdurman 18. Fadl M. 8. Omer A. Al-Hilal Omdurman 23. Musa H. 24. Tia Asad M.	16. Diouf M. P. A. (G) Teungueth 22. Ba D. 15. Ciss B. (C) 2. Ndiaye S. M. 13. Samb L. Teungueth 11. Ba O. US Goree 8. Fonseca B. Ouakam 7. Gueye L. Pontevedra 17. Ly M. Y. 25. Cisse V. US Goree 4. Seck O. AJEL
Substitutes
14. Abdalla M. 16. Al Fatih A. (G) Al-Merreikh 15. Alhassan S. Al-Hilal Omdurman 13. Al Misbah F. 7. Awad K. 10. Bakhakh M. 21. Madani M. (G) Al-Hilal Omdurman 2. Makeen M. Al-Merreikh 6. Simbo M. Al-Hilal Omdurman 19. Tabanja A. 12. Zaid A.	24. Badji P. Smouha 19. Boye I. Diambars de Saly 12. Coly A. AJEL 9. Gomis C. Winterthur 20. Kane I. 10. Koita M. ASC Jaraaf 23. Lo Ndoye C. (G) ASC Jaraaf 1. Mballo S. (G) US Goree 3. Ndiaye M. Motor Lublin 21. Niang A. ASC Jaraaf 18. Sarr A. ASC Jaraaf 14. Sembene E. H. M.
Coaches
Kwesi Appiah J.	Diallo S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
6', 1 - 0, Tia Asad M. ⚽, Omer A. (A),
25', Ly M. Y. 🟨,
30', Fonseca B. ↓, Coly A. ↑,
36', Awad Y. 🟨,
42', Tia Asad M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Ly M. Y. ↓, Kane I. ↑,
46', Ciss B. ↓, Sembene E. H. M. ↑,
52', Seck O. 🟨,
58', 1 - 1, Ndiaye S. M. ⚽, Seck O. (A),
60', Kane I. 🟨,
67', Alrashed M. 🟨,
74', Seck O. ↓, Koita M. ↑,
75', Fadl M. ↓, Zaid A. ↑,
76', Tia Asad M. ↓, Bakhakh M. ↑,
84', Omer A. ↓, Tabanja A. ↑,
87', Ba O. ↓, Gomis C. ↑,
90+1', Abooja M. 🟨,
90+3', Awad Y. ↓, Makeen M. ↑,
Penalties (2 - 4)
1, Walieldin Khidir (Pen),
1, Samb L. (Pen),
2, Saeed Ahmed M. (Pen),
2, Kane I. (Pen),
3, Makeen M. (Pen),
3, Cisse V. (Pen),
4, Tabanja A. (Pen),
4, Gueye L. (Pen),

Preview

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Senegal will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Sudan won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 0:4. (average 0:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sudan
African Nations Championship
26.08.25	Madagascar - Sudan	1:0 ET ✺
23.08.25	Sudan - Algeria	2:1 penalties ✺
19.08.25	Sudan - Senegal	0:0 ✺
12.08.25	Sudan - Nigeria	4:0 ✺
05.08.25	Congo - Sudan	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21 LWTWT
- Senegal
African Nations Championship
26.08.25	Morocco - Senegal	2:1 penalties ✺
23.08.25	Uganda - Senegal	0:1 ✺
19.08.25	Sudan - Senegal	0:0 ✺
12.08.25	Senegal - Congo	1:1 ✺
05.08.25	Senegal - Nigeria	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 LWTTW

Latest Head to Head

African Nations Championship
19.08.25	Sudan - Senegal	0:0
FIFA World Cup
22.03.25	Sudan - Senegal	0:0
Africa Cup of Nations
16.10.18	Sudan - Senegal	0:1
13.10.18	Senegal - Sudan	3:0

Sudan - Senegal