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Current Win Probability
Nardo 28.6%
Draw 28.9%
Gravina 42.5%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
37.1%
29.8%
33.1%
Our Initial ML Estimation
37.8%
29.2%
32.5%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Nardo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.5%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Nardo's form might have worsened.
Gravina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.4%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Gravina's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nardo than the current prediction. (+9.2%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Nardo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gravina than the current prediction. (-10%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Gravina, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Nardo - Gravina Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 1)
41', 0 - 1, ⚽,
45+3', 1 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
57', 🟥,
Preview
A struggling side attempts to pull off an upset against a high-flying opponent (ranked 14th in the Serie D - Group H (Play Out: ) and 6th).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nardo won 2.
Nardo is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).
Gravina has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 1 win).
Nardo could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.
The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.
In the last 12 head-to-head meetings, Nardo has recorded 5 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 18:12 (averaging 1.5:1 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Nardo against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, with 12:5 goals (averaging 1.7:0.7 per game).
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