Match Info

Serie D - Group H - Round 12

Date: 16 November 2025, Sunday


	Nola		Sarnese

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.2	3
	2.29	3.56	2.67	Watch
	2.19	3.28	2.95
	2.19	3.35	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.19 ↓ (2.35)	3.35 ↓ (3.45)	2.89 ↑ (2.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nola
41.4%

Draw
27.1%

Sarnese
31.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38%

25.9%

36%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.2%

26.5%

36.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nola has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

Sarnese has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nola than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sarnese than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sarnese could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Nola - Sarnese Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Nola will win (votes: 11 - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nola: 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Nola will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
13', 0 - 1, Mazzei T. ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 2)
83', 0 - 2, ⚽,
90+13', 1 - 2, ⚽,
90+13', 2 - 2, ⚽,
90+13', 3 - 2, ⚽,
90+13', 3 - 3, ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 7 and 16 in the zone Relegation).

Nola is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Sarnese is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Nola won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:3. (average 1.3:1).

Including home match between the teams, Nola won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SS Nola 1925
Italian Serie D - Group H
09.11.25	Pompei - Nola	0:1 ✺
02.11.25	Nola - Virtus Francavilla	3:2 ✺
26.10.25	Francavilla - Nola	1:1 ✺
19.10.25	Nola - Acerrana	4:0 ✺
12.10.25	Fidelis Andria - Nola	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 WWTWL
- Sarnese
Italian Serie D - Group H
09.11.25	Sarnese - Heraclea	0:1 ✺
02.11.25	Gravina - Sarnese	5:1 ✺
26.10.25	Sarnese - Città di Fasano	1:1 ✺
19.10.25	Paganese - Sarnese	2:1 ✺
12.10.25	Sarnese - Real Normanna	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLTLT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Play Out
12.05.19	Sarnese - Nola	1:3
Italian Serie D - Group H
31.03.19	Nola - Sarnese	0:1
25.11.18	Sarnese - Nola	1:1

Nola - Sarnese: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide