Match Info

Matogrossense - Round 6

Date: 28 January 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estádio Municipal Valdir Doilho Wons (Nova Mutum)


	Nova Mutum		Chapada

	1	X	2
	2.32	2.78	3.15
	2.35	2.73	3.2
	2.36	2.81	3.24	Watch
	2.4	2.7	3.1
	2.35	2.73	3.23
	2.3	2.83	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.35 ↓ (2.7)	2.76 ↓ (2.95)	3.19 ↑ (2.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nova Mutum
38.7%

Draw
32.8%

Chapada
28.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.6%

29.9%

37.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.2%

29.5%

38%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nova Mutum has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Nova Mutum's performance.

Chapada has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Chapada might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nova Mutum than the current prediction. (-6.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Nova Mutum that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chapada than the current prediction. (+9.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Chapada could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Nova Mutum - Chapada Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
2nd Half (2 - 1)

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 9 in the zone Relegation ~ Matogrossense 2 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Matogrossense (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Recent form of Nova Mutum has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Chapada's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Chapada may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nova Mutum EC
Brazilian Campeonato Matogrossense
25.01.26	Operário Ltda - Nova Mutum	3:1 ✺
22.01.26	Primavera AC - Nova Mutum	2:2 ✺
18.01.26	Nova Mutum - Luverdense	0:0 ✺
14.01.26	União Rondonópolis - Nova Mutum	3:0 ✺
10.01.26	Nova Mutum - Sport Sinop	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 LTTLT
- Chapada FC
Brazilian Campeonato Matogrossense
24.01.26	Chapada - Cuiabá	2:2 ✺
21.01.26	Operário Ltda - Chapada	0:2 ✺
17.01.26	Chapada - Várzea Grande	3:1 ✺
13.01.26	Chapada - Mixto	0:2 ✺
10.01.26	Primavera AC - Chapada	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21 TWWLT

Nova Mutum - Chapada: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide