Match Info

Hungarian Cup - 1/8-finals

Date: 11 February 2026, Wednesday

Location: Fehérvári úti stadion (Paks)

Where to Watch on TV:


Hungary	M4 Sport


	Paksi SE		Diósgyőri

	1	X	2
	1.68	3.95	4.15
	1.68	4.16	4.22
	1.68	4.27	4.16
	1.67	3.7	4
	1.65	3.88	4.26	Watch
	1.68	4.2	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↑ (1.45)	4.03 ↓ (4.5)	4.13 ↓ (5)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paksi SE
54.9%

Draw
22.8%

Diósgyőri
22.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62%

20%

18%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.2%

19.3%

17.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paksi SE has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Paksi SE's form might have worsened.

Diósgyőri has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paksi SE than the current prediction. (+9.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Paksi SE, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Diósgyőri than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	12.5%	12.5%

Paksi SE - Diósgyőri Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Paks will win (votes: 6 - 75%). Diósgyőri will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Paks: 45% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Paks (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kovacsik A. (G) 7. Adam M. 8. Balogh B. 18. Gyurkits G. 17. Hinora K. 24. Lenzser B. 14. Silye E. 26. Szekszardi M. 29. Toth B. 5. Vecsei B. 22. Windecker J.	31. Megyeri G. (G) 6. Bardos B. 22. Bokros S. 11. Colley L. 15. Croizet Y. 25. Holdampf G. 62. Kastrati L. II. 47. Mucsanyi M. 9. Sajban M. 3. Szatmari C. 50. Vallejo A.
Substitutes
3. Alaxai A. 11. Bevardi Z. 9. Hahn J. 19. Horvath K. 21. Papp K. 25. Simon B. (G) 30. Szabo J. 15. Szendrei A. 6. Tamas O. 20. Zeke M.	32. Ambrose P. 74. Babos B. 20. Benyei A. 70. Demeter M. 44. Esiti A. 19. Keita A. 17. Macso M. 30. Sentic K. (G) 85. Szakos B. 93. Tamas M. 99. Tuska B. (G) 68. Varga Zeteny I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 4)
1', 0 - 1, Croizet Y. ⚽,
12', 0 - 2, Sajban M. ⚽,
14', Lenzser B. 🟨,
20', 0 - 3, Mucsanyi M. ⚽,
25', 1 - 3, Windecker J. ⚽,
28', 1 - 4, Colley L. ⚽,
31', Lenzser B. ↓, Alaxai A. ↑,
43', 2 - 4, Adam M. ⚽,
45+3', Bokros S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Hinora K. ↓, Bevardi Z. ↑,
47', 2 - 5, Colley L. ⚽,
49', Colley L. 🟨,
58', Colley L. ↓, Ambrose P. ↑,
59', Windecker J. ↓, Horvath K. ↑,
59', Toth B. ↓, Hahn J. ↑,
60', 2 - 6, Mucsanyi M. ⚽,
63', Croizet Y. ↓, Keita A. ↑,
64', Alaxai A. 🟨,
75', Horvath K. 🟨,
80', Vecsei B. ↓, Tamas O. ↑,
87', Vallejo A. ↓, Benyei A. ↑,
87', Mucsanyi M. ↓, Macso M. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Paks won 1.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, Paks is the team to beat.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Paks won 8 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 35:29. (average 1.8:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Paks won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 18:14. (average 2.3:1.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paksi SE
Hungarian NB I
07.02.26	Debreceni - Paksi SE	1:0 ✺
01.02.26	Paksi SE - Ferencvárosi	0:1 ✺
24.01.26	Puskás Academy - Paksi SE	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
11.01.26	Paksi SE - Ludogorets Razgrad	2:3 ✺
09.01.26	Paksi SE - Sumgayit	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 LLWLW
- Diósgyőri VTK
Hungarian NB I
07.02.26	Diósgyőri - Győri ETO	1:1 ✺
01.02.26	Diósgyőri - Kisvárda	1:1 ✺
25.01.26	Debreceni - Diósgyőri	3:2 ✺
Club Friendly
15.01.26	Wolfsberger - Diósgyőri	0:2 ✺
13.01.26	Bodø Glimt - Diósgyőri	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.5 TTLWL

Latest Head to Head

Hungarian NB I
25.10.25	Diósgyőri - Paksi SE	2:1
08.03.25	Diósgyőri - Paksi SE	0:2
03.11.24	Paksi SE - Diósgyőri	3:4
28.07.24	Diósgyőri - Paksi SE	2:2
16.03.24	Diósgyőri - Paksi SE	2:1
24.11.23	Paksi SE - Diósgyőri	4:1
12.08.23	Diósgyőri - Paksi SE	1:1

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