Match Info

NB I. - Round 5

Date: 21 August 2026, Friday

Location: Fehérvári úti stadion (Paks)

Where to Watch on TV:


Hungary	M4 Sport
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Paksi SE		Ujpest

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.80	3.40
	1.93	3.80	3.20
	1.87	3.75	3.35
	1.96	4.11	3.43
	1.9	4.03	3.45	Watch
	1.91	4.05	3.35
	1.87	3.82	3.31
	1.91	3.70	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.91 ↓ (2.28)	3.88 ↑ (3.55)	3.34 ↑ (2.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paksi SE
48.4%

Draw
23.9%

Ujpest
27.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40%

25.7%

34.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.1%

25.1%

35.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paksi SE has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Paksi SE's performance.

Ujpest has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ujpest might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paksi SE than the current prediction. (-9.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Paksi SE that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ujpest than the current prediction. (+7.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ujpest could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	40%	20%

Paksi SE - Ujpest Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Paks will win (votes: 2 - 40%). Ujpest will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Ujpest (1.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Paks (1.48) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Paks (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Ujpest (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kovacsik A. (G) 6. Gyorfi M. 24. Lenzser B. 30. Szabo J. (C) 20. Zeke M. 4. Lapu A. 22. Windecker J. 8. Balogh B. 21. Papp K. 7. Szalai J. 9. Hahn J.	1. Szappanos P. (G) 2. Bodnar G. 30. Nunes J. 94. Stronati P. 36. Ujvary F. 27. Krajcsovics A. 88. Ljujic M. (C) 77. Fenyo N. 11. Horvath K. 14. Amenyido E. 39. Vlijter G.
Substitutes
3. Debreceni A. 28. Gyetvan M. (G) 18. Gyurkits G. 19. Horvath K. 11. Kuzma H. 17. Peto M. 14. Silye E. 26. Szekszardi M. 29. Toth B. 12. Vas G. 5. Vecsei B. 16. Wiesner B.	45. Ademi A. 19. Balladom P. M. 23. Banai D. (G) 5. Fiola A. 48. Gaspar D. 3. Heitor 10. Maier A. 17. Matko A. 15. Mucsanyi M. 38. Sarkadi K. 22. Szentmihalyi A. D. (G)
Coaches
Bognar G.	Szelesi Z.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
7', Windecker J. 🟨,
21', 1 - 0, Windecker J. ⚽, Lapu A. (A),
36', 2 - 0, Szalai J. ⚽, Papp K. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Vlijter G. ↓, Matko A. ↑,
46', Ujvary F. ↓, Sarkadi K. ↑,
62', Hahn J. 🟨,
62', Hahn J. ↓, Horvath K. ↑,
63', Balogh B. ↓, Peto M. ↑,
63', Fenyo N. ↓, Mucsanyi M. ↑,
63', Krajcsovics A. ↓, Maier A. ↑,
72', Szabo J. 🟨,
74', Ljujic M. ↓, Balladom P. M. ↑,
85', Lapu A. ↓, Silye E. ↑,
87', Zeke M. 🟥,
88', Gyorfi M. ↓, Szekszardi M. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 9 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Paks won 2.

Paks is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Ujpest is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Paks may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Paks might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Paks won 10 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 39:30. (average 2:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Paks won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 24:17. (average 2.2:1.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Ujpest	8	4	2	2	17:13	4	14
6	Paks	8	3	2	3	16:17	-1	11

Last Results with these Odds

Paksi SE - the odds 2.28 are the expected chance of winning is 39.96%, but this team recently wins 64% of matches with these odds.

Ujpest - the odds 2.65 are the expected chance of winning is 34.38%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paksi SE
Hungarian NB I
16.08.26	Puskás Academy - Paksi SE	3:2 ✺
03.08.26	Zalaegerszegi TE - Paksi SE	5:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
30.07.26	Panathinaikos - Paksi SE	2:2 ✺
Hungarian NB I
26.07.26	Paksi SE - Ferencvárosi	4:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
23.07.26	Paksi SE - Panathinaikos	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.3 LLTWL
- Ujpest FC
Hungarian NB I
15.08.26	Ujpest - MTK Budapest	1:1 ✺
08.08.26	Kisvárda - Ujpest	2:4 ✺
02.08.26	Ujpest - Debreceni	4:2 ✺
24.07.26	Nyíregyháza Spartacus - Ujpest	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
18.07.26	Ujpest - Radnik Bijeljina	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 TWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Hungarian NB I
07.03.26	Ujpest - Paksi SE	0:0
23.11.25	Paksi SE - Ujpest	1:3
10.08.25	Ujpest - Paksi SE	1:2
14.03.25	Paksi SE - Ujpest	6:1
09.11.24	Ujpest - Paksi SE	0:0
04.08.24	Paksi SE - Ujpest	2:1
31.03.24	Paksi SE - Ujpest	1:2

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