Match Info

Conference League - Qualification - Quarter-finals

Date: 30 July 2026, Thursday

Location: Olympic Stadium of Athens (Athens)

Referee: Nagtegaal M. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Germany	Laola1
Greece	SKAI
Hungary	Duna World / M4 Sport +
Usa	ESPN+, SportsEngine Play


	Panathinaikos		Paksi SE

	1	X	2
	1.27	5.25	9.5	Watch
	1.31	5.25	7.75
	1.21	6.4	11	Watch
	1.21	7.05	10.48
	1.29	5.88	8.57	Watch
	1.17	6.95	10
	1.3	5.51	9.5	Watch
	1.24	6	9.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.25 ↓ (1.47)	6.04 ↑ (4.15)	9.55 ↑ (6.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Panathinaikos
74.7%

Draw
15.5%

Paksi SE
9.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.9%

22.6%

13.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.5%

21.7%

13%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Panathinaikos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Panathinaikos's performance.

Paksi SE has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Panathinaikos than the current prediction. (-8.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Panathinaikos that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paksi SE than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
86.2%	10.3%	3.4%

Panathinaikos - Paksi SE Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 - Paks (1.99) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Panathinaikos will win (25 of 29 users predict this - 86.21%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.66% – 98.76%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Panathinaikos will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Panathinaikos (votes: 3 - 75%). Paks (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pena I. (G) 19. Tsapras T. 6. de Vrij S. (C) 5. Touba A. 77. Kyriakopoulos G. 8. Jagusic A. 22. Camara E. 16. Gnezda Cerin A. 11. Zaroury A. 7. Tetteh A. 10. Andino S.	1. Kovacsik A. (G) 12. Vas G. 30. Szabo J. (C) 20. Zeke M. 6. Gyorfi M. 22. Windecker J. 21. Papp K. 4. Lapu A. 19. Horvath K. 17. Peto M. 7. Szalai J.
Substitutes
44. Biniaris P. 12. Chaves L. (G) 4. Chirivella P. 3. Katris G. 18. Kontouris S. 70. Kotsaris K. (G) 56. Lavdas V. 17. Pantelidis P. 28. Pellistri F. 74. Rastoder E. 20. Taborda V. 55. Van Drongelen R.	8. Balogh B. 13. Bode D. 28. Gyetvan M. (G) 18. Gyurkits G. 9. Hahn J. 10. Haraszti Z. 11. Kuzma H. 24. Lenzser B. 25. Racz G. (G) 26. Szekszardi M. 29. Toth B. 5. Vecsei B.
Coaches
Neestrup J.	Bognar G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
11', Lapu A. 🟨,
35', 0 - 1, Peto M. ⚽, Horvath K. (A),
44', 1 - 1, Jagusic A. ⚽,
45+2', Szabo J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Lapu A. ↓, Lenzser B. ↑,
57', 1 - 2, Gyorfi M. ⚽, Zeke M. (A),
61', Touba A. ↓, Van Drongelen R. ↑,
61', Zaroury A. ↓, Pellistri F. ↑,
66', Jagusic A. ↓, Rastoder E. ↑,
68', Horvath K. 🟨,
72', Horvath K. ↓, Gyurkits G. ↑,
72', Peto M. ↓, Toth B. ↑,
72', Szalai J. ↓, Bode D. ↑,
76', Gnezda Cerin A. ↓, Chirivella P. ↑,
76', Andino S. ↓, Taborda V. ↑,
85', Gyorfi M. ↓, Balogh B. ↑,
85', 2 - 2, Rastoder E. ⚽, de Vrij S. (A),

Preview

First leg result: 2-1.

Panathinaikos is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Paks has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Paks may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Panathinaikos has had a series of away games.

Recently, Paks has had a series of home games.

In this match, Panathinaikos is the obvious favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Panathinaikos won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Outrights of UEFA Europa Conference League for now

Panathinaikos: 3.5%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Panathinaikos FC
UEFA Europa Conference League
23.07.26	Paksi SE - Panathinaikos	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
15.07.26	Rapid Wien - Panathinaikos	4:0 ✺
11.07.26	Panathinaikos - Grasshoppers	3:0 ✺
04.07.26	Ajax - Panathinaikos	1:3 ✺
01.07.26	Helmond Sport - Panathinaikos	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 WLWWW
- Paksi SE
Hungarian NB I
26.07.26	Paksi SE - Ferencvárosi	4:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
23.07.26	Paksi SE - Panathinaikos	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
17.07.26	Austria Wien - Paksi SE	4:1 ✺
16.07.26	Paksi SE - Slaven Belupo	5:3 ✺
11.07.26	Paksi SE - Kozármisleny	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
23.07.26	Paksi SE - Panathinaikos	1:2

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