Match Info

Champions League Women - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 11 February 2026, Wednesday

Location: Stade Charlety (Paris)

Referee: Martincic I. (Cro)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SupeSport ESPN 2
Albania	Disney+
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 4
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, TOD
Austria	Disney+
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Disney+
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Czech-republic	Disney+
Denmark	Disney+
Estonia	Disney+
Finland	Disney+
France	Disney+, Free, L'Equipe, Molotov TV
Greece	Disney+
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 3
Hungary	Disney+
Iceland	Disney+
India	FanCode, FanCode
Indonesia	beIN Connect, Vidio
Italy	Disney+
Kazakhstan	Disney+
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	Disney+
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Sooka
Mexico	TVC Deportes
Netherlands	Disney+
Nigeria	SupeSport ESPN 2
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN Norte
Norway	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Poland	Disney+
Portugal	Disney+
Romania	Disney+
Singapore	beIN Sports 3
Slovakia	Disney+
South-africa	SupeSport ESPN 2
South-america	ESPN 4 South
Spain	Disney+
Sweden	Disney+
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
United-kingdom	Disney+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	CBS Sports Network, ESPN App, ESPN Deportes, Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter


	Paris FC		Real Madrid

	1	X	2
	4.75	3.6	1.65
	4.33	3.7	1.71
	4.95	3.55	1.68
	5.22	3.85	1.67
	5.09	3.86	1.64	Watch
	4.75	3.4	1.62
	5.28	3.55	1.59
	5.33	3.5	1.64
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.96 ↑ (4.84)	3.63 ↑ (3.43)	1.65 ↓ (1.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paris FC
18.6%

Draw
25.5%

Real Madrid
55.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

19.3%

27.3%

53.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.2%

29%

56.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paris FC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Real Madrid has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paris FC than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.9%	0%	57.1%

Paris FC - Real Madrid Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Paris FC will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Real Madrid will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Paris FC (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Chavas M. (G) 18. N'Dongala M. 2. Hocine C. 19. Greboval T. 3. Bogaert L. 21. Picard O. 4. Korosec K. 7. Garbino M. 24. Le Moguedec A. 10. Mateo C. (C) 9. Azzaro L.	1. Misa (C) 19. Navarro E. 14. Mendez M. 23. Lakrar M. 12. Yasmim 10. Weir C. 8. Dabritz S. 16. Angeldal F. 7. del Castillo A. 20. Feller N. 18. Caicedo L.
Substitutes
22. Haheim N. 20. Jedlinska K. 26. Liaigre F. 1. Marques I. (G) 30. Mendonca R. (G) 27. Mendy M. 15. Sangare H. 11. Scott S. 23. Sissoko T. 5. Sylla K.	22. Andersson B. 17. Bennison H. 5. Comendador P. 29. Cristobal S. 28. Dorado I. 4. Galvez Luna R. 15. Garcia S. 21. Holmgaard S. 26. Lopez L. (G) 11. Redondo A. 6. Toletti S.
Coaches
Soubeyrand S.	Quesada P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
10', 1 - 0, Korosec K. ⚽, Garbino M. (A),
17', Caicedo L. 🟨,
30', N'Dongala M. 🟨,
39', 1 - 1, Weir C. ⚽,
45', 1 - 2, del Castillo A. ⚽, Caicedo L. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
48', Mateo C. 🟨,
59', Garbino M. ↓, Liaigre F. ↑,
63', Angeldal F. 🟨,
71', Weir C. ↓, Toletti S. ↑,
72', Picard O. ↓, Mendy M. ↑,
72', Azzaro L. ↓, Jedlinska K. ↑,
77', Yasmim 🟨,
83', 1 - 3, Caicedo L. ⚽, Misa (A),
83', N'Dongala M. ↓, Haheim N. ↑,
83', Greboval T. ↓, Sylla K. ↑,
89', 2 - 3, Mendy M. ⚽, Mateo C. (A),
90+4', Feller N. 🟨,

Preview

First leg.

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 10 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League Women (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League Women (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Paris FC may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Real Madrid is a strong favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Paris FC won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2. (average 1.3:0.7).

Including home match between the teams, Paris FC won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Real Madrid W	2	0	2	0	2:2	0	2
14	Paris FC W	2	0	1	1	4:7	-3	1

Outrights of UEFA Champions League Women for now

Real Madrid W: 1.78% Paris FC W: 0.41%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paris FC Women
French Division 1 Women
07.02.26	Paris FC - Paris Saint-Germain	0:3 ✺
30.01.26	Olympique Marseille - Paris FC	0:3 ✺
Coupe De France Women
25.01.26	Saint-Malo - Paris FC	0:1 ✺
French Division 1 Women
18.01.26	Paris FC - OL Lyonnes	0:0 ✺
14.01.26	Paris FC - Nantes	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 LWWTL
- Real Madrid Women
Spanish Liga F Women
08.02.26	Real Madrid - Espanyol	3:0 ✺
Spanish Copa De La Reina
05.02.26	Real Madrid - Barcelona	0:4 ✺
Spanish Liga F Women
01.02.26	Deportivo A Coruña - Real Madrid	2:4 ✺
Spanish Supercopa Women
24.01.26	Barcelona - Real Madrid	2:0 ✺
20.01.26	Real Madrid - Atlético Madrid	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League Women
11.11.25	Real Madrid - Paris FC	1:1
20.12.23	Real Madrid - Paris FC	0:1
14.12.23	Paris FC - Real Madrid	2:1

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