Match Info

BRAZIL: Paulista A4 - Round 8

Date: 19 February 2025, Wednesday


	Penapolense		Nacional SP

	1	X	2
	2.06	3	3.55
	1.99	2.91	3.86
	2.01	3.07	3.79	Watch
	2.03	3.33	3.64
	2.06	3	3.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↓ (2.4)	3.06 ↑ (2.95)	3.68 ↑ (3.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Penapolense
45.1%

Draw
29.9%

Nacional SP
24.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.6%

31.4%

29.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.6%

31.4%

29.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Penapolense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Penapolense's performance.

Nacional SP has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Penapolense than the current prediction. (-6.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Penapolense that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional SP than the current prediction. (+5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	75%	25%

Penapolense - Nacional SP Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Nacional SP will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
25', 0 - 1, Ronaldy ⚽,
45+4', 0 - 2, Nicollas ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
48', 0 - 3, Gustavo Indio (Pen),

Preview

Teams from a mid-table will play this time (ranked 12 and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista A4 (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Penapolense could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Penapolense won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1:1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Penapolense
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A4
12.02.25	Penapolense - Colorado Caieiras	0:0 ✺
09.02.25	Joseense - Penapolense	3:1 ✺
02.02.25	Penapolense - Grêmio Desportivo São-Carlense	1:1 ✺
29.01.25	Paulista - Penapolense	1:0 ✺
25.01.25	VOCEM - Penapolense	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 TLTLW
- Nacional SP
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A4
15.02.25	Nacional SP - Jabaquara	1:0 ✺
12.02.25	Inter de Bebedouro - Nacional SP	0:0 ✺
08.02.25	Colorado Caieiras - Nacional SP	3:1 ✺
01.02.25	Nacional SP - Araçatuba	2:0 ✺
29.01.25	Taquaritinga - Nacional SP	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 WTLWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A4
03.02.24	Nacional SP - Penapolense	1:1

Penapolense - Nacional SP: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide