Match Info

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C - Round 6

Date: 5 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Grupo Desportivo Peniche (Peniche)


	Peniche		Mortágua

	1	X	2
	2.09	2.95	3.47
	2.45	2.99	2.91	Watch
	2.18	2.88	3.43
	2	3.1	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.18 ↑ (2)	2.98 ↓ (3.1)	3.33 ↓ (3.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Peniche
41.9%

Draw
30.7%

Mortágua
27.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.1%

29.1%

25.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.2%

29.8%

25.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Peniche has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Mortágua has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Peniche than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mortágua than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Peniche - Mortágua Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
19', 1 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
77', 2 - 0, ⚽,
85', 3 - 0, ⚽,
90+4', 4 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 7 and 4).

In recent matches, Peniche has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Mortágua is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Recently, Peniche has had a series of home games.

Peniche could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Peniche won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 6:4. (average 1.5:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Peniche won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:2. (average 3:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- GD Peniche
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
28.09.25	Fatima - Peniche	3:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
21.09.25	Peniche - 1 Dezembro	4:5 ✺
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
14.09.25	Peniche - Samora Correia	1:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
31.08.25	Peniche - Ferreira do Zêzere	8:0 ✺
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
10.08.25	Peniche - Marinhense	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LLWWL
- Mortágua FC
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
28.09.25	Mortágua - Oliveira Hospital	2:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
21.09.25	Mortágua - Os Marialvas	1:0 penalties ✺
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
14.09.25	Marinhense - Mortágua	0:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
31.08.25	Carregal Do Sal - Mortágua	1:2 ✺
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
17.08.25	União da Serra - Mortágua	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.8 WWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
23.02.25	Mortágua - Peniche	0:0
27.10.24	Peniche - Mortágua	3:1
28.01.24	Mortágua - Peniche	2:0
17.09.23	Peniche - Mortágua	3:1

Peniche - Mortágua: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide