Match Info

BRAZIL: Baiano - Round 6

Date: 2 February 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Municipal Agnaldo Bento dos Santos (Porto Seguro)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	TVE Bahia


	Porto SC		Jequié

	1	X	2
	2.4	2.95	2.7
	2.48	2.9	2.75
	2.56	3.09	2.7
	2.52	3.1	2.71
	2.25	3	2.9
	2.52	2.98	2.72
	2.48	2.9	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.46 ↑ (2.33)	2.99 ↑ (2.89)	2.75 ↓ (2.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Porto SC
36.8%

Draw
30.3%

Jequié
32.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.6%

31.1%

30.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.5%

30.4%

29.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Porto SC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Jequié has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Porto SC than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jequié than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

Porto SC - Jequié Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
	1. Thiago Passos (G)
	8. Gilberto Junior
	6. Gilmar
	4. Jean
	10. Joao Grilo (C)
	11. Kaynan
	7. Lucas Shallon
	9. Recife T.
	3. Sergio Baiano
	2. Wanderson Lima
	5. Ygor
Substitutes
	15. Azevedo
	. Deijair (G)
	14. Gabriel Henrique
	17. Gregory
	13. Guga Freira
	21. Harrison
	23. Marcos Paulo
	22. Neto Rocha (G)
	16. Railan
	20. Tiquinho
	19. Vicente
	18. Wanderson

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
6', 1 - 0, Luan Rodrigues ⚽,
24', Pedro Dias 🟨,
27', Rafael Sales 🟨,
45+4', Bruno Sabino ↓, Bruno Ferreira ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Diki ↓, Vinicius ↑,
46', Kaynan ↓, Gregory ↑,
46', Lucas Shallon ↓, Tiquinho ↑,
59', 1 - 1, Gregory ⚽,
63', Peu ↓, Lucas Pezao ↑,
67', Gabriel Saulo ↓, Leo Colman ↑,
72', Ygor ↓, Guga Freira ↑,
72', Gilberto Junior ↓, Marcos Paulo ↑,
73', Marcos Paulo 🟨,
74', Vini 🟨,
79', Gilmar ↓, Gabriel Henrique ↑,
87', 1 - 2, Joao Grilo ⚽,
88', 🟨,
89', Leo Colman 🟨,

Preview

Let's enjoy game between two mid-table teams (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Baiano (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 7).

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Jequié could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Porto SC Porto Seguro
Brazilian Campeonato Baiano
30.01.25	Juazeirense - Porto SC	0:2 ✺
26.01.25	Bahia - Porto SC	2:0 ✺
21.01.25	Porto SC - Atlético de Alagoinhas	1:1 ✺
14.01.25	Colo Colo de Ilhéus - Porto SC	0:0 ✺
11.01.25	Porto SC - Jacobina	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WLTTW
- AD Jequié
Brazilian Campeonato Baiano
29.01.25	Jequié - Bahia	1:3 ✺
25.01.25	Atlético de Alagoinhas - Jequié	0:0 ✺
18.01.25	Jequié - Colo Colo de Ilhéus	2:0 ✺
15.01.25	Barcelona de Ilhéus - Jequié	0:0 ✺
12.01.25	Jequié - Juazeirense	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LTWTL

Porto SC - Jequié: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide