Match Info

Baiano - Round 6

Date: 1 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Arena Fonte Nova (Salvador)


	Bahia		Porto SC

	1	X	2
	1.25	5.3	9.2
	1.23	5.2	9.19
	1.27	4.94	9.47
	1.25	4.8	10
	1.25	4.85	10.5
	1.2	6.5	13
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.24 ↓ (1.32)	5.27 ↑ (4.65)	10.23 ↑ (8.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bahia
73.7%

Draw
17.4%

Porto SC
8.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.8%

19.8%

10.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

73.8%

18.7%

9.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bahia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

Porto SC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Porto SC than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	25%	0%

Bahia - Porto SC Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Bahia will win (votes: 3 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Bahia (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 - Bahia (1.91) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Bahia (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
34. Joao Paulo (G) 19. Caio Alexandre 89. Dell 14. Erick 3. Gabriel Xavier 31. Gomez R. 25. Iago Borduchi 4. Kanu (C) 57. Kaue Junior 15. Michel Araujo 99. Olivera C.	1. Matheus Cabral (G) 3. Anderson Bandeira 7. Bruno Ferreira 19. Cesinha 9. Diki 4. Everton Dias 2. Gabriel Saulo 10. Luan Rodrigues (C) 8. Pedro Lima 6. Peu 5. Ygor

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 1)
4', 1 - 0, Kaue Junior ⚽,
5', 🟨,
27', 2 - 0, Dell ⚽,
36', 2 - 1, Luan Rodrigues (Penalty Awarded),
39', Cesinha 🟨,
45+4', 3 - 1, Michel Araujo ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Baiano (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Baiano (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

Bahia is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Porto has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Bahia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Bahia is the obvious favorite.

We predict that Bahia will win today's game, with odds of 1.35.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Bahia won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Including home match between the teams, Bahia won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Bahia
Brazilian Serie A
28.01.26	Corinthians - Bahia	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Baiano
25.01.26	Vitória Salvador - Bahia	0:1 ✺
20.01.26	Bahia - Barcelona de Ilhéus	5:1 ✺
17.01.26	Bahia - Galícia	3:0 ✺
14.01.26	Bahia de Feira - Bahia	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.9 WWWWW
- Porto SC Porto Seguro
Brazilian Campeonato Baiano
28.01.26	Porto SC - Barcelona de Ilhéus	1:1 ✺
22.01.26	Bahia de Feira - Porto SC	1:1 ✺
18.01.26	Porto SC - Vitória Salvador	1:1 ✺
15.01.26	Jequié - Porto SC	1:1 ✺
10.01.26	Porto SC - Jacuipense	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.5 TTTTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Baiano
26.01.25	Bahia - Porto SC	2:0

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