Match Info

LaLiga2 - Round 1

Date: 16 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio El Sardinero (Santander)

Referee: Arcediano D. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Racing Santander		Castellón

	1	X	2
	1.9	3.7	3.8	Watch
	2.15	3.4	2.9
	1.95	3.6	3.45	Watch
	1.93	3.85	3.91
	1.49	3.88	7.50	Watch
	2.15	3.6	3
	2.05	3.64	3.47	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 ↓ (2.2)	3.67 ↑ (3.61)	4 ↑ (3.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Racing Santander
49.6%

Draw
26.3%

Castellón
24.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.9%

26.2%

30.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44%

25.5%

30.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Racing Santander has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Racing Santander's performance.

Castellón has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Castellón might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Racing Santander than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Racing Santander that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Castellón than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Castellón could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	37.5%	12.5%

Racing Santander - Castellón Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Racing will win (votes: 4 - 50%). Castellón will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Racing: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ezkieta J. (G) 2. Mantilla A. 4. Manu 5. Castro J. 32. Salinas J. 6. Sainz-Maza I. (C) 8. Aldasoro A. 11. Martin A. 10. Vicente I. 15. Sangalli M. 12. Villalibre A.	1. Abedzadeh A. (G) 22. Mellot J. 5. Jimenez A. 4. Sienra A. 17. Ruiz S. (C) 8. Barri 15. Gerenabarrena B. 7. Mabil A. 21. Calatrava A. 16. Cipenga B. 9. Camara O.
Substitutes
13. Andreev P. (G) 7. Cabanzon Y. 20. Camara S. 18. Canales P. 37. Crespo A. 23. Garcia M. 3. Garcia S. 42. Incera I. 29. Jeremy Arevalo 17. Michelin C. 43. Santi F. 36. Sergio M.	. Alcazar . Bosilj D. . Brignani F. . Gil O. . Mamah K. . Markanich N. . Matthys R. (G) . Serpeta . Suero I. . Suner P. M. . Tincho . Willman M.
Coaches
Lopez J.	Plat J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
6', 1 - 0, Villalibre A. ⚽, Vicente I. (A),
39', 2 - 0, Martin A. ⚽, Vicente I. (A),
45+1', 2 - 1, Camara O. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Sienra A. ↓, Suero I. ↑,
59', Sainz-Maza I. ↓, Sergio M. ↑,
59', Sangalli M. ↓, Cabanzon Y. ↑,
61', Mantilla A. 🟨,
63', Cipenga B. ↓, Tincho ↑,
67', Sergio M. 🟨,
75', Mabil A. ↓, Serpeta ↑,
75', Camara O. ↓, Markanich N. ↑,
78', Mantilla A. ↓, Michelin C. ↑,
78', Aldasoro A. ↓, Canales P. ↑,
83', Jimenez A. 🟥,
84', 3 - 1, Martin A. (Pen),
85', Calatrava A. ↓, Brignani F. ↑,
90', Villalibre A. ↓, Jeremy Arevalo ↑,
90+5', Vicente I. 🟨,

Preview

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

Castellón may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Racing has had a series of home games.

Recently, Castellón has had a series of away games.

Racing could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Racing: Arana J. (Injury)

There are questionable in Racing: Gueye M. (Inactive) Michelin C. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Castellón: Ronaldo (Inactive) Santiago P. (Inactive)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Racing won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1. (average 1:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Racing won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Racing Santander - the odds 2.2 are the expected chance of winning is 42.94%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Racing Santander
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Racing Santander - Cagliari	1:1 ✺
09.08.25	Racing Santander - Cagliari	0:0 ✺
02.08.25	Osasuna - Racing Santander	0:1 ✺
30.07.25	Racing Santander - Athletic Bilbao	2:1 ✺
26.07.25	Racing Santander - Sporting de Gijón	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.2 TTWWW
- CD Castellón
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Albacete Balompié - Castellón	0:1 ✺
08.08.25	Levante - Castellón	0:2 ✺
02.08.25	Huesca - Castellón	1:1 ✺
30.07.25	Castellón - Al-Riyadh	2:0 ✺
26.07.25	Deportivo Alavés - Castellón	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.7 WWTWL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
13.04.25	Racing Santander - Castellón	1:1
22.09.24	Castellón - Racing Santander	0:1

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