Match Info

Regionalliga Nordost - Round 9

Date: 20 September 2025, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Germany	Ostsport


	Rot-Weiß Erfurt		Chemnitzer

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.4	3.55
	1.94	3.55	3.78
	1.89	3.38	3.65
	1.64	4	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.86 ↑ (1.62)	3.58 ↓ (3.9)	3.87 ↓ (4.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rot-Weiß Erfurt
50.1%

Draw
25.9%

Chemnitzer
24%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.4%

23.8%

18.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.2%

23.1%

18.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rot-Weiß Erfurt has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Rot-Weiß Erfurt's form might have worsened.

Chemnitzer has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Chemnitzer's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rot-Weiß Erfurt than the current prediction. (+9.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Rot-Weiß Erfurt, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chemnitzer than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Chemnitzer, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Rot Weiß Erfurt - Chemnitzer Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
5', 1 - 0, Caciel B. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
53', 2 - 0, Ugondu O. C. ⚽,
80', 2 - 1, Baumgart T. ⚽,
89', 2 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Regionalliga North and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Rot-Weiß Erfurt won 2.

Rot-Weiß Erfurt is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Chemnitzer's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Rot-Weiß Erfurt may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Rot-Weiß Erfurt is the team to beat.

We predict that Rot-Weiß Erfurt will win today's game, with odds of 1.62.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Rot-Weiß Erfurt won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 25:32. (average 1.3:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Rot-Weiß Erfurt won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 15:16. (average 1.5:1.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rot-Weiß Erfurt
German Regionalliga Nordost
16.09.25	Chemie Leipzig - Rot-Weiß Erfurt	0:1 ✺
13.09.25	Preussen - Rot-Weiß Erfurt	2:4 ✺
31.08.25	Rot-Weiß Erfurt - Magdeburg II	3:1 ✺
26.08.25	Altglienicke - Rot-Weiß Erfurt	1:3 ✺
23.08.25	Rot-Weiß Erfurt - Hallescher	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 WWWWL
- Chemnitzer FC
German Regionalliga Nordost
17.09.25	Chemnitzer - Hallescher	3:0 ✺
13.09.25	Babelsberg - Chemnitzer	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
06.09.25	Rot-Weiß Oberhausen - Chemnitzer	5:1 ✺
German Regionalliga Nordost
30.08.25	Chemnitzer - Preussen	1:1 ✺
27.08.25	Lokomotive Leipzig - Chemnitzer	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.5 WWLTL

Latest Head to Head

German Regionalliga Nordost
20.04.25	Chemnitzer - Rot-Weiß Erfurt	2:0
27.10.24	Rot-Weiß Erfurt - Chemnitzer	0:0
19.05.24	Chemnitzer - Rot-Weiß Erfurt	2:2
08.12.23	Rot-Weiß Erfurt - Chemnitzer	7:2
25.02.23	Rot-Weiß Erfurt - Chemnitzer	1:0
10.09.22	Chemnitzer - Rot-Weiß Erfurt	0:3
18.02.19	Chemnitzer - Rot-Weiß Erfurt	2:0

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