Match Info

Regionalliga Nordost - Round 29

Date: 11 April 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Germany	MDR Fernsehen, Ostsport
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV


	Rot-Weiß Erfurt		Babelsberg

	1	X	2
	2.08	3.65	3
	2.06	3.85	3.17
	1.72	3.94	3.98
	2.05	3.5	2.9
	1.96	3.52	3.26
	1.54	3.9	5.11
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.9 ↑ (1.53)	3.73 ↓ (3.88)	3.57 ↓ (5.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rot-Weiß Erfurt
48.9%

Draw
25%

Babelsberg
26.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.6%

23.5%

16.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.7%

23.1%

16.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rot-Weiß Erfurt has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Rot-Weiß Erfurt's form might have worsened.

Babelsberg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Babelsberg's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rot-Weiß Erfurt than the current prediction. (+11.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Rot-Weiß Erfurt, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Babelsberg than the current prediction. (-9.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Babelsberg, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Rot Weiß Erfurt - Babelsberg Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
9', 1 - 0, Wolf M. ⚽,
36', 1 - 1, Hasse T. ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
54', Weyh K. 🟥,
55', 2 - 1, Schwarz T. ⚽,
66', 3 - 1, Assibey-Mensah R. ⚽,
81', 3 - 2, Schulz L. ⚽,
84', 4 - 2, Ugondu O. C. ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 4 and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Rot-Weiß Erfurt won 2.

Rot-Weiß Erfurt is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Babelsberg has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Rot-Weiß Erfurt may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Babelsberg has had a series of home games.

In this match, Rot-Weiß Erfurt is the team to beat.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Rot-Weiß Erfurt won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 19:16. (average 1.6:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Rot-Weiß Erfurt won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:6. (average 2.2:1.2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Erfurt	11	8	3	0	36:11	25	27
12	Babelsberg	11	3	3	5	14:17	-3	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rot-Weiß Erfurt
German Regionalliga Nordost
04.04.26	Lokomotive Leipzig - Rot-Weiß Erfurt	2:1 ✺
20.03.26	Rot-Weiß Erfurt - Hertha Berlin II	3:2 ✺
14.03.26	Chemnitzer - Rot-Weiß Erfurt	0:4 ✺
08.03.26	Rot-Weiß Erfurt - Chemie Leipzig	2:2 ✺
04.03.26	Greifswald - Rot-Weiß Erfurt	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 LWWTW
- SV Babelsberg 03
German Regionalliga Nordost
08.04.26	Greifswald - Babelsberg	0:0 ✺
04.04.26	Babelsberg - Hertha Zehlendorf	4:0 ✺
01.04.26	Babelsberg - Berliner FC Dynamo	2:2 ✺
27.03.26	Babelsberg - Chemie Leipzig	5:0 ✺
21.03.26	Babelsberg - Lokomotive Leipzig	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 TWTWL

Latest Head to Head

German Regionalliga Nordost
18.10.25	Babelsberg - Rot-Weiß Erfurt	0:2
02.03.25	Babelsberg - Rot-Weiß Erfurt	0:2
02.10.24	Rot-Weiß Erfurt - Babelsberg	1:1
07.04.24	Babelsberg - Rot-Weiß Erfurt	3:1
20.10.23	Rot-Weiß Erfurt - Babelsberg	0:1
05.05.23	Babelsberg - Rot-Weiß Erfurt	2:0
26.11.22	Rot-Weiß Erfurt - Babelsberg	6:2

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