Match Info

2. SNL - Round 11

Date: 18 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Mestni stadion ob jezeru (Velenje)


	Rudar Velenje		Gorica

	1	X	2
	2.68	3.3	2.28
	2.84	3.37	2.19
	1.18	5.23	25.00	Watch
	2.92	3.44	2.3
	2.76	3.28	2.32
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.48 ↓ (2.64)	3.72 ↑ (3.33)	6.82 ↑ (2.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rudar Velenje
49.3%

Draw
32.8%

Gorica
17.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.4%

27.2%

38.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.8%

26.7%

39.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rudar Velenje has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Rudar Velenje's performance.

Gorica has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-20.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Gorica might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rudar Velenje than the current prediction. (-15.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Rudar Velenje that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gorica than the current prediction. (+21.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Gorica could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Rudar Velenje - Gorica Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
21', 1 - 0, ⚽,
25', 1 - 1, ⚽,
34', 2 - 1, ⚽,
45+2', 🟥,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
86', 🟥,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 14 and 16 in the zone Relegation).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Rudar won 1.

In recent matches, Rudar has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Gorica's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Gorica may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Rudar won 8 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 23:26. (average 1.2:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Rudar won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 13:7. (average 1.4:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rudar Velenje
Slovenian 2 SNL
11.10.25	Dravinja - Rudar Velenje	1:0 ✺
05.10.25	Rudar Velenje - Krka	0:0 ✺
27.09.25	Ilirija Ljubljana - Rudar Velenje	2:2 ✺
21.09.25	Slovan Ljubljana - Rudar Velenje	0:3 ✺
12.09.25	Rudar Velenje - Triglav	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LTTWL
- ND Gorica
Slovenian 2 SNL
12.10.25	Gorica - Slovan Ljubljana	1:1 ✺
03.10.25	Triglav - Gorica	3:0 ✺
26.09.25	Gorica - Brinje-Grosuplje	2:2 ✺
20.09.25	Beltinci - Gorica	3:0 ✺
13.09.25	Gorica - Bilje	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 TLTLT

Latest Head to Head

Slovenian 2 SNL
26.11.24	Rudar Velenje - Gorica	2:2
10.08.24	Gorica - Rudar Velenje	3:3
18.11.23	Gorica - Rudar Velenje	2:0
26.10.23	Rudar Velenje - Gorica	0:0
21.05.22	Rudar Velenje - Gorica	2:0
06.11.21	Gorica - Rudar Velenje	3:0
Slovenian PrvaLiga
09.04.16	Rudar Velenje - Gorica	1:0

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