Match Info

Serie B - Round 24

Date: 23 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Primeiro de Maio (Sao Bernardo)

Referee: Martins F. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	São Bernardo		Náutico Capibaribe

	1	X	2
	1.96	3.4	3.7
	2.15	3.10	3.20
	2.2	3	3.25
	2.07	3.43	3.86
	2.17	3.24	3.4	Watch
	2.04	3.35	3.7
	1.99	3.38	3.68
	2.05	3.3	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.08 ↓ (2.15)	3.28 ↓ (3.3)	3.54 ↑ (3.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

São Bernardo
45%

Draw
28.6%

Náutico Capibaribe
26.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

43.2%

28.2%

28.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.1%

29.4%

27.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

São Bernardo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Náutico Capibaribe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Bernardo than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Náutico Capibaribe than the current prediction. (+1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	40%	0%

São Bernardo - Náutico Capibaribe Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. São Bernardo will win (votes: 3 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Alex Alves (G) 2. Rodrigo Ferreira 35. Jemerson (C) 3. Helder Maciel 6. Para 14. Lucas Lima 26. Dudu Miraima 11. Pedro Vitor 17. Romisson 29. Pedrinho 9. Felipe Garcia	1. Muriel Becker (G) 2. Arnaldo 15. Leo Indio 23. Igor Fernandes 6. Ryan Carlos 8. Wenderson 41. Samuel Felix 72. Derek 10. Jean Carlos (C) 24. Borasi B. 19. Kauan Maranhao
Substitutes
97. Augusto 30. Breninho 89. Daniel Amorim 37. Davi D. 36. Galdino 21. Hugo Sanches 42. Hyoran 12. Junior Oliveira (G) 98. Leo Jaba 31. Lucas Fernandes 90. Luizao 33. Mario Sergio	5. Auremir 3. Betao 48. Guilherme 55. Guruceaga G. (G) 16. Luiz Claudio 22. Nunez P. 93. Reginaldo 34. Wanderson 17. Wendell
Coaches
Vinicius Bergantin	Helio dos Anjos

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
40', Arnaldo 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Arnaldo ↓, Reginaldo ↑,
54', 1 - 0, Lucas Lima ⚽,
62', Leo Indio ↓, Betao ↑,
65', Pedrinho ↓, Leo Jaba ↑,
66', Pedro Vitor ↓, Hyoran ↑,
74', Samuel Felix ↓, Nunez P. ↑,
74', Kauan Maranhao ↓, Luiz Claudio ↑,
81', Romisson ↓, Hugo Sanches ↑,
81', Felipe Garcia ↓, Davi D. ↑,
85', Borasi B. ↓, Wendell ↑,
86', 1 - 1, Derek ⚽, Wendell (A),
90+2', Dudu Miraima ↓, Galdino ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 13 and 15).

São Bernardo is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Náutico is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

São Bernardo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

São Bernardo could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in São Bernardo: Lucas Rian (Suspended) Marcao Silva (Inactive) Mario Sergio (Injury) Matheus Salustiano (Knee Injury) Rodrigo Andrade (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Náutico: Junior Todinho (Injury) Luiz Felipe (Injury) Paulo Sergio (Injury)

There are questionable in Náutico: Gustavo Henrique (Inactive) Matheus Ribeiro (Injury)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, São Bernardo won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:5. (average 1.4:1).

Including home matches between the teams, São Bernardo won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.5:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Sao Bernardo	34	12	10	12	46:37	9	46
15	Nautico	34	11	10	13	39:42	-3	43

Last Results with these Odds

Náutico Capibaribe - the odds 3.25 are the expected chance of winning is 28.6%, but this team recently wins 36% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- São Bernardo FC
Brazilian Serie B
19.08.26	Fortaleza - São Bernardo	1:1 ✺
14.08.26	São Bernardo - Botafogo SP	0:1 ✺
07.08.26	Operário Ferroviario - São Bernardo	1:3 ✺
26.07.26	São Bernardo - Ceará	3:4 ✺
23.07.26	Athletic Club - São Bernardo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.9 TLWLL
- Náutico Capibaribe
Brazilian Serie B
18.08.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Ceará	1:0 ✺
14.08.26	Ponte Preta - Náutico Capibaribe	1:1 ✺
09.08.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Atlético Goianiense	1:1 ✺
26.07.26	Criciúma - Náutico Capibaribe	0:0 ✺
22.07.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Londrina	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 WTTTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
18.04.26	Náutico Capibaribe - São Bernardo	0:3
Brazilian Serie C
24.08.25	São Bernardo - Náutico Capibaribe	1:1
21.04.24	Náutico Capibaribe - São Bernardo	1:1
26.08.23	Náutico Capibaribe - São Bernardo	2:2
Copa do Brasil
01.03.23	São Bernardo - Náutico Capibaribe	0:1

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