Match Info

Serie B - Round 35

Date: 26 October 2026, Monday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Alfredo Jaconi (Caxias do Sul) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Correia B. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Brazil	20:30	Disney+


	Juventude		Náutico Capibaribe

	1	X	2
	1.39	4.10	8.50	Watch
	1.40	4.33	7.00
	1.47	4.20	7.00	Watch
	1.43	4.49	8.89
	1.42	4.4	7.6	Watch
	1.39	4.70	8.10
	1.39	4.33	7.75	Watch
	1.39	4.40	7.60
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.41 ↓ (1.56)	4.37 ↑ (3.94)	7.81 ↑ (5.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Juventude
66.5%

Draw
21.5%

Náutico Capibaribe
12%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

59.7%

23.6%

16.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.3%

22.7%

16%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Juventude has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Juventude's performance.

Náutico Capibaribe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Juventude than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Juventude that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Náutico Capibaribe than the current prediction. (+4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Juventude - Náutico Capibaribe Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Juventude will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Juventude (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
93. Jandrei (G) 34. Rodrigo Sam (C) 4. Messias 97. Gabriel Pinheiro 13. Aderlan 75. Rai Silva 29. Gabriel Pires 16. Diogo Barbosa 11. Fabio Lima 25. Alisson Safira 10. MP	55. Guruceaga G. (G) 93. Reginaldo 23. Igor Fernandes 3. Betao 6. Ryan Carlos 27. Luiz Felipe 8. Wenderson 7. Vinicius (C) 10. Jean Carlos 24. Borasi B. 72. Derek
Substitutes
18. Amarilla L. 17. Castro M. 70. Juan Christian 72. Lucas Alves 8. Lucas Mineiro 26. Ly I. 30. Patryck 2. Rai Ramos 27. Ray Breno 21. Ruan Carneiro (G) 3. Titi 6. Wadson	2. Arnaldo 5. Auremir 29. Junior Todinho 19. Kaua Maranhao 16. Luiz Claudio 60. Luiz Paulo 1. Muriel Becker (G) 9. Paulo Sergio 41. Samuel Felix 11. Victor Andrade 34. Wanderson
Coaches
Mauricio Barbieri	Bruno Pivetti

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
7', 1 - 0, Fabio Lima ⚽, Alisson Safira (A),
8', Fabio Lima 🟨,
26', Jean Carlos 🟨,
29', Gabriel Pinheiro 🟨,
40', 2 - 0, Rai Silva ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Luiz Felipe ↓, Samuel Felix ↑,
50', 3 - 0, Aderlan ⚽, Gabriel Pires (A),
53', Ryan Carlos 🟨,
54', Ryan Carlos ↓, Wanderson ↑,
58', Fabio Lima ↓, Amarilla L. ↑,
59', Rodrigo Sam ↓, Titi ↑,
66', Borasi B. ↓, Victor Andrade ↑,
72', Rai Silva ↓, Lucas Mineiro ↑,
79', Gabriel Pires ↓, Juan Christian ↑,
79', MP ↓, Ray Breno ↑,
79', Jean Carlos ↓, Paulo Sergio ↑,
79', Derek ↓, Kaua Maranhao ↑,
89', Wanderson 🟨,
90+3', Victor Andrade 🟨,
90+6', 4 - 0, Amarilla L. ⚽, Alisson Safira (A),

Preview

This match features a clash between a top-table contender and a mid-table team (ranked 3rd in the Promotion - Serie B (Promotion - Playoffs - Final) and 15th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Juventude won 2.

Juventude is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Náutico has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Juventude could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

The betting markets point to Juventude as the clear and undisputed favorite.

Confirmed absences for Juventude: Allanzinho (Knee Injury) Luan Martins (Red Card) Mandaca (Injury) Marcos Paulo (Red Card) Pedro Rocha (Red Card).

Confirmed absences for Náutico: Danielzinho (Inactive) Leo Indio (Inactive) Mateus Silva (Inactive) Matheus Ribeiro (Injury) Muriel Becker (Inactive).

Our forecast points to a victory for Juventude in today's match, at odds of 1.49.

In the last 7 head-to-head meetings, Juventude has recorded 2 wins, 4 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 8:8 (averaging 1.1:1.1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Juventude against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 3:1 goals (averaging 1:0.3 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Juventude	35	18	10	7	45:23	22	64
15	Nautico	35	11	10	14	39:46	-7	43

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Juventude
Brazilian Serie B
17.10.26	Ceará - Juventude	2:2 ✺
11.10.26	Juventude - São Bernardo	2:2 ✺
06.10.26	Ponte Preta - Juventude	0:2 ✺
02.10.26	Juventude - Operário Ferroviario	3:0 ✺
28.09.26	América Mineiro - Juventude	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 TTWWW
- Náutico Capibaribe
Brazilian Serie B
19.10.26	Goiás - Náutico Capibaribe	0:0 ✺
11.10.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Vila Nova	0:2 ✺
08.10.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:2 ✺
02.10.26	Fortaleza - Náutico Capibaribe	1:1 ✺
26.09.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Sport Recife	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 TLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
05.07.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Juventude	0:0
28.11.20	Juventude - Náutico Capibaribe	1:0
22.08.20	Náutico Capibaribe - Juventude	3:3
Brazilian Serie C
22.09.19	Náutico Capibaribe - Juventude	3:1 penalties
15.09.19	Juventude - Náutico Capibaribe	2:1
Brazilian Serie B
24.10.17	Juventude - Náutico Capibaribe	0:0
11.07.17	Náutico Capibaribe - Juventude	1:1

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