Match Info

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C - Round 4

Date: 13 September 2026, Sunday


	SB Castelo Branco		Nogueirense

	1	X	2
	2.05	2.87	3.40
	2.05	2.95	3.40
	2.03	3.04	3.43
	2.06	3.11	3.5	Watch
	2.01	3.00	3.35
	2.05	3.28	3.48
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.04 ↓ (2.42)	3.04 ↓ (3.1)	3.43 ↑ (2.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

SB Castelo Branco
44.1%

Draw
29.6%

Nogueirense
26.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.6%

29.3%

33.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

SB Castelo Branco has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in SB Castelo Branco's performance.

Nogueirense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Nogueirense might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

SB Castelo Branco - Nogueirense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
5', 0 - 1, ⚽,
10', 1 - 1, ⚽,
36', 1 - 2, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
72', 1 - 3, ⚽,
80', 2 - 3, ⚽,

Preview

SB Castelo Branco may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, SB Castelo Branco won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:0. (average 2.5:0).

Including home matches between the teams, SB Castelo Branco won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:0. (average 2.5:0).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Nogueirense	4	1	3	0	8:7	1	6
8	SB Castelo Branco	4	2	0	2	7:9	-2	6

Last Results with these Odds

SB Castelo Branco - the odds 2.42 are the expected chance of winning is 37.58%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SB Castelo Branco
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
06.09.26	Alverca B - SB Castelo Branco	0:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
29.08.26	Fatima - SB Castelo Branco	3:1 ✺
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
16.08.26	Oliveira Hospital - SB Castelo Branco	2:3 ✺
18.04.26	Fatima - SB Castelo Branco	4:1 ✺
12.04.26	SB Castelo Branco - Samora Correia	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.1 WLWLL
- AD Nogueirense
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
06.09.26	Nogueirense - União da Serra	1:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
30.08.26	Nogueirense - Naval	1:3 AET ✺
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
16.08.26	Nogueirense - Sertanense	1:1 ✺
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
28.04.19	Leiria - Nogueirense	3:0 ✺
31.03.19	Santa Iria - Nogueirense	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 TLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
14.10.18	SB Castelo Branco - Nogueirense	2:0
25.02.18	SB Castelo Branco - Nogueirense	3:0

SB Castelo Branco - Nogueirense: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide