Match Info

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C - Round 25

Date: 12 April 2026, Sunday


	SB Castelo Branco		Samora Correia

	1	X	2
	1.52	3.65	5.7
	1.49	3.7	5.91
	1.50	3.80	6.08	Watch
	1.44	3.7	6
	1.45	3.7	7.06
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.48 ↓ (1.54)	3.71 ↓ (3.78)	6.15 ↑ (5.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

SB Castelo Branco
61%

Draw
24.3%

Samora Correia
14.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.3%

24.2%

16.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62%

23.1%

15.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

SB Castelo Branco has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Samora Correia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for SB Castelo Branco than the current prediction. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Samora Correia than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

SB Castelo Branco - Samora Correia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 2)
54', 0 - 1, ⚽,
61', 1 - 1, ⚽,
74', 1 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Campeonato de Portugal ~ Promotion Group and 12 in the zone Relegation).

SB Castelo Branco is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Samora Correia's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Samora Correia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, SB Castelo Branco is a strong favorite.

We predict that SB Castelo Branco will win today's game, with odds of 1.67.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, SB Castelo Branco won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	SB Castelo Branco	4	2	0	2	7:9	-2	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SB Castelo Branco
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
04.04.26	Peniche - SB Castelo Branco	0:2 ✺
25.03.26	Vitória de Sernache - SB Castelo Branco	0:0 ✺
21.03.26	SB Castelo Branco - Oliveira Hospital	1:1 ✺
15.03.26	Marinhense - SB Castelo Branco	0:1 ✺
08.03.26	SB Castelo Branco - SC Lusitânia	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.1 WTTWW
- GD Samora Correia
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
04.04.26	Samora Correia - Eléctrico	2:1 ✺
29.03.26	Samora Correia - Peniche	5:2 ✺
21.03.26	Vitória de Sernache - Samora Correia	1:0 ✺
15.03.26	Samora Correia - Os Marialvas	0:1 ✺
08.03.26	Naval - Samora Correia	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
14.12.25	Samora Correia - SB Castelo Branco	0:1

SB Castelo Branco - Samora Correia: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide