Match Info

Georgian Cup - Quarter-finals

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Erosi Manjgaladze Stadium (Samtredia)


	Samtredia		Rustavi

	1	X	2
	4.10	3.40	1.72
	3.8	3.35	1.78	Watch
	3.5	3.35	1.86
	5	3.13	1.76
	3.7	3.3	1.76
	4.52	3.46	1.67
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.1 ↑ (3.9)	3.33 ↓ (3.9)	1.76 ↓ (1.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Samtredia
21.9%

Draw
27%

Rustavi
51.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.9%

52.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.2%

22.7%

49.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Samtredia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Rustavi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Samtredia than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rustavi than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Samtredia - Rustavi Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Rustavi will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Rustavi (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

1X2, 1st Half - Rustavi (2.31) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

TQ, OT - Rustavi (1.37) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Rustavi (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Lazarevs V. (G) 10. Cordero Gonzalez J. 16. Dobranskyi D. 20. Gagnidze O. 25. Gaye M. 37. Gvasalia D. 2. Gvishiani G. 33. Latsabidze G. 32. Lopez B. 7. Mandzhgaladze G. (C) 11. Odikadze T.	35. Roland J. (G) 2. Andghuladze S. 24. Iakobidze I. 7. Jackson Kenio 9. Jean 8. Kakashvili K. (C) 27. Kapanadze M. 22. Nakano Y. 10. Osei P. 3. Patsatsia V. 40. Ubilava D.
Substitutes
6. Ayuk E. 8. Barrios E. 40. Chikovani T. 26. Gogitadze L. 19. Jangidze T. 4. Kaladze L. 15. Kveladze G. 1. Samkharadze S. 31. Tsulaia L.	5. Ceijas K. 4. David Oliveira 23. Gambos M. 13. Gujabidze A. 18. Japaridze N. 1. Kardava S. (G) 33. Ksovreli G. 12. Tarkashvili T. 25. Tskhadadze K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
38', Patsatsia V. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
52', 0 - 1, Jean (Penalty Awarded),
57', 1 - 1, Cordero Gonzalez J. ⚽,
73', Gagnidze O. ↓, Chikovani T. ↑,
73', Odikadze T. ↓, Ayuk E. ↑,
75', Ubilava D. ↓, Ceijas K. ↑,
79', Mandzhgaladze G. 🟨,
81', 1 - 2, Nakano Y. ⚽,
85', Jackson Kenio ↓, David Oliveira ↑,
85', Kakashvili K. ↓, Gujabidze A. ↑,
85', Gvasalia D. ↓, Gogitadze L. ↑,
85', Lopez B. ↓, Barrios E. ↑,
90+2', Nakano Y. ↓, Gambos M. ↑,
90+2', Jean ↓, Japaridze N. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Samtredia won 1.

Samtredia is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Rustavi has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Samtredia could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

In this matchup, Rustavi is considered the favorite to take the win.

In the last 12 head-to-head meetings, Samtredia has recorded 3 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses, with a goal aggregate of 9:16 (averaging 0.8:1.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Samtredia against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 3 draws, and 1 loss, with 5:5 goals (averaging 0.8:0.8 per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Rustavi - the odds 1.78 are the expected chance of winning is 52.28%, but this team recently wins 88% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Samtredia
Georgian Erovnuli Liga 2
16.09.26	Kolkheti Poti - Samtredia	1:0 ✺
12.09.26	Samtredia - Gareji Sagarejo	6:1 ✺
07.09.26	Telavi - Samtredia	0:3 ✺
Georgian Cup
02.09.26	Samtredia - Iberia 1999	2:0 ✺
Georgian Erovnuli Liga 2
28.08.26	Samtredia - Odishi 1919	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 35.8 LWWWW
- FC Rustavi
Georgian Erovnuli Liga
21.09.26	Rustavi - Iberia 1999	0:2 ✺
14.09.26	Meshakhte Tkibuli - Rustavi	0:1 ✺
09.09.26	Spaeri - Rustavi	1:1 ✺
04.09.26	Rustavi - Dinamo Batumi	0:1 ✺
30.08.26	Samgurali Tskhaltubo - Rustavi	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LWTLT

Latest Head to Head

Georgian Erovnuli Liga 2
21.10.25	Rustavi - Samtredia	3:0
Georgian Cup
23.09.25	Rustavi - Samtredia	1:2
Georgian Erovnuli Liga 2
24.08.25	Samtredia - Rustavi	0:2
09.05.25	Rustavi - Samtredia	1:0
16.03.25	Samtredia - Rustavi	1:1
06.11.22	Samtredia - Rustavi	1:0
12.05.22	Samtredia - Rustavi	2:1

Samtredia - Rustavi: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide