Match Info

Serie D - Group C - Round 18

Date: 4 January 2026, Sunday


	San Luigi		Mestre

	1	X	2
	3	3.05	2.18
	3.16	3.31	2.11	Watch
	3	3	2.15
	3.25	3.04	2.31
	3.1	3.25	2.12
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.1 ↑ (2.54)	3.13 ↓ (3.23)	2.17 ↓ (2.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

San Luigi
29.3%

Draw
29%

Mestre
41.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.5%

27.9%

36.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.3%

26.9%

37.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

San Luigi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that San Luigi's form might have worsened.

Mestre has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Mestre's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for San Luigi than the current prediction. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mestre than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

San Luigi - Mestre Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Mestre (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
12', 0 - 1, Marcandella D. (Penalty Awarded),
39', 0 - 2, Corti A. ⚽,
41', 1 - 2, Forte L. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
66', 1 - 3, Rabbas M. ⚽,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 15 in the zone Serie D ~ Group C (Play Out: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D ~ Group C (Play Offs: )).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Mestre	6	2	4	0	9:6	3	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- San Luigi Calcio
Italian Serie D - Group C
21.12.25	Obermais - San Luigi	1:1 ✺
14.12.25	San Luigi - Cjarlins Muzane	1:1 ✺
07.12.25	Treviso - San Luigi	4:0 ✺
30.11.25	San Luigi - Altavilla	2:0 ✺
23.11.25	Legnago Salus - San Luigi	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 TTLWL
- AC Mestre
Italian Serie D - Group C
21.12.25	Treviso - Mestre	1:0 ✺
14.12.25	Mestre - Altavilla	1:1 ✺
07.12.25	Legnago Salus - Mestre	0:1 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie D
03.12.25	Club Milano - Mestre	1:0 penalties ✺
Italian Serie D - Group C
30.11.25	Mestre - Luparense	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 LTWLT

San Luigi - Mestre: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide