Match Info

Serie D - Group H - Round 9

Date: 26 October 2025, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Vivo Azzurro TV


	Sarnese		Città di Fasano

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.45	2.78
	1.91	3.74	3.31	Watch
	2.23	3.63	2.9
	2.2	3.5	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.12 ↑ (1.92)	3.58 ↑ (3.4)	2.95 ↓ (3.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sarnese
43.2%

Draw
25.6%

Città di Fasano
31.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.6%

26.3%

27.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.3%

26.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sarnese has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

Città di Fasano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sarnese than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Città di Fasano than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Sarnese - Città di Fasano Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
45', 1 - 0, Santarpia P. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
71', 1 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 13 and 1 in the zone Promotion).

Sarnese has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Città di Fasano is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Città di Fasano may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Città di Fasano has had a series of home games.

Sarnese will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Sarnese won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:6. (average 0.5:3).

Including home match between the teams, Sarnese won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sarnese
Italian Serie D - Group H
19.10.25	Paganese - Sarnese	2:1 ✺
12.10.25	Sarnese - Real Normanna	0:0 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie D
08.10.25	Martina Calcio - Sarnese	3:1 ✺
Italian Serie D - Group H
05.10.25	Ferrandina - Sarnese	2:1 ✺
28.09.25	Sarnese - Martina Calcio	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LTLLL
- US Città di Fasano
Coppa Italia Serie D
22.10.25	Città di Fasano - Savoia	4:3 penalties ✺
Italian Serie D - Group H
19.10.25	Città di Fasano - Fidelis Andria	2:1 ✺
12.10.25	Virtus Francavilla - Città di Fasano	0:1 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie D
08.10.25	Città di Fasano - Gravina	3:0 ✺
Italian Serie D - Group H
05.10.25	Città di Fasano - Nardo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 WWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group H
14.04.19	Città di Fasano - Sarnese	5:1
09.12.18	Sarnese - Città di Fasano	0:1

Sarnese - Città di Fasano: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide