Match Info

Division 3 - Group 6 - Round 23

Date: 12 October 2026, Monday 🏁 Finished


	Sarpsborg 2		Rælingen

	1	X	2
	1.27	6.25	6.25
	1.23	5.9	7.2
	1.31	5.77	5.78
	1.28	6.1	7.1	Watch
	1.25	5.65	5.65
	1.21	6.45	7.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.26 ↓ (1.63)	6.02 ↑ (4.53)	6.64 ↑ (3.94)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.50

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sarpsborg 2
71.5%

Draw
14.9%

Rælingen
13.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

56.4%

20.3%

23.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.4%

19.6%

22.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sarpsborg 2 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sarpsborg 2's performance.

Rælingen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Rælingen might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sarpsborg 2 than the current prediction. (-13.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sarpsborg 2 that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rælingen than the current prediction. (+8.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Rælingen could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Sarpsborg 2 - Rælingen Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
33', 0 - 1, Sannum E. ⚽,
34', 1 - 1, Gueye B. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

An exciting matchup between two close rivals in the standings (ranked 11th and 10th).

Sarpsborg 2 is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Performances by Rælingen have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Rælingen may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Bookmakers give the edge to Sarpsborg 2 for this game.

In the last 1 head-to-head meeting, Sarpsborg 2 has recorded 0 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 2:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Raelingen	25	11	5	9	49:55	-6	38
11	Sarpsborg 08 2	25	9	5	11	60:57	3	32

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sarpsborg 2
Norwegian Division 3 - Group 6
03.10.26	Drøbak-Frogn - Sarpsborg 2	4:1 ✺
26.09.26	Sarpsborg 2 - Gjøvik-Lyn	3:2 ✺
21.09.26	Lyn 2 - Sarpsborg 2	2:2 ✺
12.09.26	Sarpsborg 2 - Lillehammer	3:1 ✺
07.09.26	Ørn-Horten - Sarpsborg 2	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.6 LWTWW
- Rælingen FK
Norwegian Division 3 - Group 6
03.10.26	Gjøvik-Lyn - Rælingen	5:0 ✺
28.09.26	Rælingen - Lyn 2	1:0 ✺
19.09.26	Elverum - Rælingen	4:1 ✺
12.09.26	Rælingen - Drøbak-Frogn	2:2 ✺
30.08.26	Rælingen - Oppsal	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 LWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Norwegian Division 3 - Group 6
20.04.26	Rælingen - Sarpsborg 2	2:2

Sarpsborg 2 - Rælingen