Match Info

Carioca B2 - Round 7

Date: 5 October 2026, Monday 🏁 Finished

Location: Carioca B2 🌤️ ...


	Serra Macaense		Santa Cruz RJ

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.15	2.90
	2.34	3.44	2.67	Watch
	2.00	3.20	2.95
	2.22	3.41	2.97
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.18 ↓ (2.33)	3.3 ↓ (3.47)	2.87 ↑ (2.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Serra Macaense
41.4%

Draw
27.3%

Santa Cruz RJ
31.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

39.5%

26.5%

34%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42%

28.2%

32%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Serra Macaense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Santa Cruz RJ has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Serra Macaense than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santa Cruz RJ than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Serra Macaense - Santa Cruz RJ Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
29', 🟥,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', 1 - 0, ⚽,
51', 2 - 0, ⚽,
84', 3 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

Two table neighbours face each other in what promises to be a tight contest (ranked 5th and 3rd in the Promotion - Carioca B2 Playoffs - Semi - finals).

Both teams look competitive and well-prepared heading into this encounter.

Serra Macaense could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 1 head-to-head meeting, Serra Macaense has recorded 0 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 0:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Serra Macaense	10	6	2	2	22:11	11	20
4	Santa Cruz RJ	9	6	0	3	11:8	3	18

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Serra Macaense
Brazilian Carioca B2
01.10.26	Cardoso Moreira - Serra Macaense	2:3 ✺
27.09.26	Serra Macaense - Rio de Janeiro	2:1 ✺
20.09.26	Búzios - Serra Macaense	0:2 ✺
13.09.26	Serra Macaense - Paduano	1:2 ✺
07.09.26	7 de Abril - Serra Macaense	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WWWLT
- Santa Cruz RJ
Brazilian Carioca B2
01.10.26	Belford Roxo - Santa Cruz RJ	3:0 ✺
27.09.26	Santa Cruz RJ - Cardoso Moreira	1:0 ✺
21.09.26	Rio de Janeiro - Santa Cruz RJ	1:3 ✺
13.09.26	Santa Cruz RJ - Búzios	3:0 ✺
30.08.26	Santa Cruz RJ - 7 de Abril	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Carioca B2
19.10.25	Santa Cruz RJ - Serra Macaense	0:0

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