Match Info

Carioca B1 - Round 7

Date: 17 October 2026, Saturday


	Serrano FC		Carapebus Campos

	1	X	2
	1.33	4.10	9.00
	1.32	4.15	8.00
	1.34	4.28	8.6
	1.25	4.55	9.25
	1.40	4.36	7.27
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.33 ↓ (1.37)	4.29 ↓ (4.3)	8.42 ↑ (7.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Serrano FC
68.2%

Draw
21.1%

Carapebus Campos
10.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

66.9%

21.3%

11.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

71.1%

20%

11.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Serrano FC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Carapebus Campos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Serrano FC than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carapebus Campos than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Serrano FC - Carapebus Campos Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
14', 1 - 0, ⚽,
17', 2 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
90+2', 3 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

This match features one of the top teams against an opponent battling near the bottom (ranked 3rd in the Promotion - Carioca B1 Playoffs - Semi - finals and 12th in the Relegation - Carioca B2).

In recent outings, Serrano has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Carapebus has suffered a run of successive defeats (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

The betting markets point to Serrano as the clear and undisputed favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head meeting, Serrano has recorded 0 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 0:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Serrano FC	8	4	3	1	11:7	4	15
12	AA Carapebus	7	0	1	6	5:16	-11	1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Serrano FC Petrópolis
Brazilian Carioca B1
10.10.26	Serrano FC - Macaé	1:0 ✺
03.10.26	Artsul - Serrano FC	3:4 ✺
26.09.26	Serrano FC - Campo Grande	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Serrano FC - Goytacaz	0:0 ✺
05.09.26	Niteroiense - Serrano FC	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WWTTL
- Carapebus Campos
Brazilian Carioca B1
10.10.26	Carapebus Campos - Niteroiense	1:3 ✺
03.10.26	Macaé - Carapebus Campos	4:3 ✺
25.09.26	Carapebus Campos - São Cristóvão	0:1 ✺
19.09.26	Artsul - Carapebus Campos	0:0 ✺
11.09.26	Carapebus Campos - Duque de Caxias	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Carioca B1
18.10.25	Carapebus Campos - Serrano FC	0:0

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