Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA 3 - ROUND 19

Date: 19 February 2023, Sunday

Location: Estádio do Bonfim (Setúbal)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Setúbal		Académica Coimbra

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.25	2.95
	1.85	3.5	3.5
	2.26	3.36	3.29
	2.16	3.32	3.1	Watch
	2.2	3.3	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.11 ↑ (1.78)	3.35 ↓ (3.79)	3.15 ↓ (4.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Setúbal
43.4%

Draw
27.4%

Académica Coimbra
29.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.7%

25.2%

21.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.7%

26.6%

20%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Setúbal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Setúbal's form might have worsened.

Académica Coimbra has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Académica Coimbra's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Setúbal than the current prediction. (+13.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Setúbal, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Académica Coimbra than the current prediction. (-9.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Académica Coimbra, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

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Preview

Outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 11 in the zone Liga 3 (Relegation Group) and 8 in the zone Liga 3 (Relegation Group)).

Setúbal is Liga 3 (Relegation Group)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Setúbal won 2.

Setúbal is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Académica is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Académica could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Setúbal will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 10 head-to-head matches Setúbal won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 11-12.

Including matches at home between the teams Setúbal won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vitoria Setúbal
Portuguese Liga 3
12.02.23	Alverca - Setúbal	2:0 ✺
05.02.23	Oliveira Hospital - Setúbal	3:1 ✺
28.01.23	Setúbal - Moncarapachense	2:3 ✺
22.01.23	Caldas - Setúbal	1:1 ✺
16.01.23	Setúbal - Fontinhas	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 LLLTW
- Académica Coimbra
Portuguese Liga 3
11.02.23	Académica Coimbra - Moncarapachense	0:0 ✺
05.02.23	Caldas - Académica Coimbra	1:0 ✺
29.01.23	Académica Coimbra - Fontinhas	1:0 ✺
21.01.23	Sporting Lisbon B - Académica Coimbra	1:2 ✺
15.01.23	Académica Coimbra - Leiria	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.4 TLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
05.11.22	Académica Coimbra - Setúbal	3:0
Liga Portugal
22.01.16	Setúbal - Académica Coimbra	2:1
24.08.15	Académica Coimbra - Setúbal	0:4
08.02.15	Setúbal - Académica Coimbra	0:0
29.08.14	Académica Coimbra - Setúbal	1:1
11.04.14	Académica Coimbra - Setúbal	1:1
09.12.13	Setúbal - Académica Coimbra	1:0

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