Match Info

Date: 7 July 2022, Thursday

Location: National Arena Toshe Proeski (Skopje)

Referee: Fahndrich L. (Sui)


	Shkendija Tetovo		Ararat

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.4	3.5	Watch
	1.9	3.5	3.9	Watch
	1.85	3.5	3.8
	1.84	3.3	3.95
	1.9	3.51	4.05
				Watch
	1.75	3.62	4.3	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↓ (2.5)	3.47 ↑ (3.3)	3.92 ↑ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Shkendija Tetovo
49.7%

Draw
26.7%

Ararat
23.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.3%

27.5%

36.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.4%

28.2%

37.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Shkendija Tetovo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Shkendija Tetovo's performance.

Ararat has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ararat might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Shkendija Tetovo than the current prediction. (-14.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Shkendija Tetovo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ararat than the current prediction. (+13.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ararat could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
89%	8.3%	2.8%

Shkendija Tetovo - Ararat Predictions

Users Predictions: 109 users predict this event. Shkendija will win (votes: 97 - 89%). Ararat will win (votes: 3 - 2.8%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 8.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Shkendija: 83.1% – 94.9%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

1st leg. Playing home matches at a different stadium.

Recent matches Shkendija is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Ararat is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Ararat could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Shkendija have a series of guest games.

In this match Shkendija is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Shkendija Tetovo
Club Friendly
26.06.22	Dinamo Zagreb - Shkendija Tetovo	3:0 ✺
21.06.22	Zrinjski Mostar - Shkendija Tetovo	3:3 ✺
18.06.22	Maribor - Shkendija Tetovo	0:1 ✺
12.06.22	Ferencvárosi - Shkendija Tetovo	1:1 ✺
North Macedonian 1 MFL
15.05.22	Struga - Shkendija Tetovo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.4 LTWTT
- Ararat Yerevan
Armenian Premier League
28.05.22	Ararat - Ararat-Armenia	0:1 ✺
24.05.22	Pyunik - Ararat	1:0 ✺
20.05.22	Ararat - BKMA Yerevan	1:2 ✺
15.05.22	Alashkert - Ararat	2:1 ✺
11.05.22	Ararat - Noravank	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 LLLLW

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