Match Info

Allsvenskan - Round 28

Date: 26 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Studenternas IP (Uppsala)

Referee: Wolf V. (Swe)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	HBO Max, Veikkaus TV
Italy	Amazon Prime Video
Sweden	Discovery+, HBO Max, max Extra 2, TV4 Play


	Sirius		Elfsborg

	1	X	2
	1.86	4.1	3.4	Watch
	1.9	4.05	3.4	Watch
	2.1	3.82	3.14
	1.69	4.28	4.30	Watch
	1.92	3.82	3.51	Watch
	1.7	4	3.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.86 ↑ (1.7)	4.01 ↑ (4)	3.62 ↓ (3.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sirius
50.5%

Draw
23.5%

Elfsborg
26%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.9%

22.9%

23.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43%

18.3%

29.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sirius has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

Elfsborg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sirius than the current prediction. (-7.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sirius that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Elfsborg than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
77.8%	11.1%	11.1%

Sirius - Elfsborg Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Sirius will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). Elfsborg will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sirius: 50.6% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Sirius (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Elfsborg (3.61) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.25 - Elfsborg (2.68) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Sirius (votes: 1 - 20%). Elfsborg (votes: 2 - 40%). Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
34. Celic D. (G) 2. Castegren H. (C) 15. Sandberg S. 4. Anker T. 22. Krusnell O. 10. Heier M. 17. Lindberg M. 29. Bjerkebo I. 14. Walta L. 7. Persson J. 9. Ure R.	31. Pettersson I. (G) 6. Wikstrom R. 29. Buhari I. 4. Granli D. 23. Hult N. (C) 18. Magnusson J. 10. Olsson S. 25. Sigurpalsson A. 16. Hellemaa A. 9. Zeneli A. 11. Silverholt T.
Substitutes
5. Carlsson T. 1. Diawara I. (G) 19. Milleskog N. 3. Milovanov B. 8. Nartey M. 24. Svensson V. 18. Vikman A. 13. Voelkerling J. 21. Widgren D.	28. Aronsson F. 1. Eriksson S. (G) 17. Frick P. 15. Hedlund S. 13. Larsson J. 20. Rapp G. 7. Thomasen J. 5. Wenderson
Coaches
Engelmark A.	Hiljemark O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
27', 1 - 0, Bjerkebo I. ⚽, Lindberg M. (A),
39', Persson J. 🟨,
45', 2 - 0, Castegren H. ⚽, Walta L. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Hellemaa A. ↓, Wenderson ↑,
58', Zeneli A. ↓, Rapp G. ↑,
60', Anker T. 🟨,
67', Silverholt T. ↓, Frick P. ↑,
69', Granli D. 🟨,
75', Sigurpalsson A. ↓, Larsson J. ↑,
75', Buhari I. ↓, Hedlund S. ↑,
77', 3 - 0, Walta L. ⚽, Bjerkebo I. (A),
83', Bjerkebo I. ↓, Widgren D. ↑,
86', 4 - 0, Walta L. ⚽,
87', Persson J. ↓, Svensson V. ↑,
89', Lindberg M. ↓, Nartey M. ↑,
89', Ure R. ↓, Milleskog N. ↑,
90', Heier M. ↓, Vikman A. ↑,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 12 and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sirius won 1.

Sirius has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Elfsborg's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Sirius may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Sirius could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Elfsborg: Hedlund S. (Inactive) Holmen S. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Sirius: Ljungberg A. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Sirius won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 33:41. (average 1.7:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Sirius won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 23:20. (average 2.3:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- IK Sirius
Swedish Allsvenskan
18.10.25	Häcken - Sirius	1:1 ✺
05.10.25	Sirius - Malmö	5:1 ✺
29.09.25	Djurgården - Sirius	8:2 ✺
21.09.25	Sirius - Degerfors	1:3 ✺
14.09.25	Sirius - GAIS	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 TWLLW
- IF Elfsborg
Swedish Allsvenskan
19.10.25	Elfsborg - Öster	5:1 ✺
04.10.25	Mjällby - Elfsborg	2:0 ✺
27.09.25	Elfsborg - Degerfors	1:2 ✺
20.09.25	GAIS - Elfsborg	2:0 ✺
14.09.25	Elfsborg - Malmö	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Swedish Allsvenskan
23.04.25	Elfsborg - Sirius	4:3
06.10.24	Sirius - Elfsborg	4:1
29.04.24	Elfsborg - Sirius	2:0
06.08.23	Elfsborg - Sirius	1:0
08.05.23	Sirius - Elfsborg	3:4
18.09.22	Elfsborg - Sirius	3:0
14.05.22	Sirius - Elfsborg	2:0

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