Match Info

Campeonato de Portugal - Group B - Round 5

Date: 11 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished


	Sousense		Estrela da Calheta

	1	X	2
	2.38	3.20	2.60
	1.93	3.27	3.46
	2.31	3.26	2.83	Watch
	1.91	3.20	3.40
	2.12	3.36	3.21
	2.25	3.15	2.80
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.15 ↓ (2.6)	3.24 ↓ (3.3)	3.05 ↑ (2.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sousense
42.2%

Draw
28%

Estrela da Calheta
29.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

35%

27.6%

37.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.4%

26.5%

36%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sousense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sousense's performance.

Estrela da Calheta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Estrela da Calheta might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sousense than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sousense that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Estrela da Calheta than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Estrela da Calheta could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Sousense - Estrela da Calheta Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 3)
58', 0 - 1, ⚽,
61', 0 - 2, ⚽,
76', 0 - 3, ⚽,
86', 1 - 3, ⚽,

Preview

A direct clash near the foot of the table where neither side can afford to drop points (ranked 14th in the Relegation and 12th in the Campeonato de Portugal - Relegation Group (Relegation Group: )).

Sousense has struggled for results with multiple recent losses (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Estrela da Calheta is experiencing a dip in performance (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Sousense could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

These two teams have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Estrela Calheta	6	1	2	3	6:11	-5	5
13	Sousense	6	0	2	4	5:12	-7	2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Sousense
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
13.09.26	Sousense - União Lamas	3:3 ✺
06.09.26	Ovarense - Sousense	2:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
30.08.26	Salgueiros 08 - Sousense	2:1 ✺
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
22.08.26	Sousense - Castro Daire	0:1 ✺
16.08.26	Cinfães - Sousense	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 TLLLL
- Estrela da Calheta
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
04.10.26	Castro Daire - Estrela da Calheta	3:0 ✺
27.09.26	Estrela da Calheta - Cinfães	2:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
20.09.26	Estrela da Calheta - Vianense	1:3 ✺
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
13.09.26	Estrela da Calheta - Ovarense	0:3 ✺
15.08.26	Machico - Estrela da Calheta	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LTLLT

Sousense - Estrela da Calheta