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Current Win Probability
Spakenburg 56.6%
Draw 22.2%
Koninklijke HFC 21.3%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
57%
22.9%
20.1%
Our Initial ML Estimation
58.4%
22.4%
19.6%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Spakenburg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)
Koninklijke HFC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Spakenburg than the current prediction. (+1.8%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Koninklijke HFC than the current prediction. (-1.7%)
Spakenburg - Koninklijke HFC Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
13. Houweling J. (G) 25. den Haan J. 22. van Mil K. 3. Apau M. 5. Green D. 44. Guiting J. 8. van Huffel S. 10. Kunst D. 7. El Azzouti A. 9. van der Linden F. 81. Linthorst T.
12. van der Sar J. (G) 3. Heeremans R. 77. Morgan A. 2. Ploem M. 16. Muller J. 9. Donker N. 23. de Boer T. 27. Girault C. 21. Bijen T. 87. Ladan D. 17. de Wilde L.
Substitutes
4. Claver C. 1. Heus M. (G) 11. Junte R. 16. Kok O. 27. Puriel J. 15. van Lopik H. 14. Wesdorp K.
25. Breeveld S. 10. Dijkstra C. . Meza L. 24. Mussche S. 22. Ramdjanamsingh D. 19. Ras T. 4. Vlak G.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (2 - 1)
8', 1 - 0, El Azzouti A. ⚽, Guiting J. (A),
24', 1 - 1, Bijen T. ⚽, de Wilde L. (A),
41', 2 - 1, van der Linden F. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
63', Linthorst T. 🟨,
65', Ploem M. 🟨,
67', 2 - 2, Bijen T. ⚽,
68', Kunst D. ↓, Wesdorp K. ↑,
68', Linthorst T. ↓, Junte R. ↑,
69', El Azzouti A. ↓, van Lopik H. ↑,
75', Donker N. ↓, Ras T. ↑,
80', 3 - 2, Junte R. ⚽, van Mil K. (A),
80', van Mil K. ↓, Puriel J. ↑,
82', Ladan D. 🟨,
84', Ladan D. ↓, Dijkstra C. ↑,
84', de Wilde L. ↓, Mussche S. ↑,
86', van der Linden F. ↓, Kok O. ↑,
Preview
This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 5 and 14).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Spakenburg won 3.
Recent performances by Spakenburg have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).
HFC has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
In this match, Spakenburg is a strong favorite.
In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Spakenburg won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 18:21. (average 1.3:1.5).
Including home matches between the teams, Spakenburg won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:5. (average 1.5:0.8).
Last Results with these Odds
Spakenburg - the odds 1.63 are the expected chance of winning is 57%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.