Match Info

NPL Queensland - Round 17

Date: 13 July 2025, Sunday


	St. George Willawong		Brisbane City

	1	X	2
				Watch
	4.33	3.9	1.63
	3.95	4.15	1.62	Watch
	4.32	4.3	1.62
				Watch
	4	4	1.65
	4.5	4.05	1.59	Watch
	3.11	3.7	1.97
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.04 ↑ (2.7)	4.02 ↑ (3.55)	1.68 ↓ (2.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

St. George Willawong
22.7%

Draw
22.8%

Brisbane City
54.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.2%

25.2%

41.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.1%

25.3%

41.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

St. George Willawong has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that St. George Willawong's form might have worsened.

Brisbane City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Brisbane City's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for St. George Willawong than the current prediction. (+10.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for St. George Willawong, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brisbane City than the current prediction. (-12.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Brisbane City, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

St. George Willawong - Brisbane City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 4)
15', 0 - 1, Barnes M. ⚽,
26', 0 - 2, Barnes M. ⚽,
39', 0 - 3, Bolton K. ⚽,
45', 0 - 4, Bolton K. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
72', 1 - 4, Simmons A. ⚽,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 11 in the zone Relegation ~ Queensland Premier League and 10).

St. George Willawong has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Brisbane City's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Brisbane City may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, St. George Willawong has had a series of home games.

Recently, Brisbane City has had a series of away games.

In this match, Brisbane City is a strong favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, St. George Willawong won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- St. George Willawong
Australian NPL Queensland
06.07.25	Queensland Lions - St. George Willawong	3:0 ✺
22.06.25	St. George Willawong - Wynnum Wolves	1:4 ✺
14.06.25	St. George Willawong - Gold Coast Knights	2:2 ✺
08.06.25	St. George Willawong - Gold Coast United	1:1 ✺
03.06.25	St. George Willawong - Eastern Suburbs	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 LLTTL
- Brisbane City
Australian NPL Queensland
05.07.25	Brisbane City - Wynnum Wolves	3:4 ✺
29.06.25	Olympic FC - Brisbane City	0:1 ✺
21.06.25	Gold Coast Knights - Brisbane City	5:2 ✺
14.06.25	Gold Coast United - Brisbane City	2:0 ✺
07.06.25	Eastern Suburbs - Brisbane City	2:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 LWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Australian NPL Queensland
06.04.25	Brisbane City - St. George Willawong	2:1

St. George Willawong - Brisbane City: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide