Match Info

Carioca 2 - Round 10

Date: 5 July 2025, Saturday


	São Gonçalo		Petrópolis

	1	X	2
	2.2	2.9	3.1
	2.42	2.98	3
	2.41	2.97	3
				Watch
	2.38	2.82	3.09
	1.76	3.18	4.64
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.23 ↑ (1.75)	2.97 ↓ (3.22)	3.37 ↓ (4.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

São Gonçalo
41.4%

Draw
31.1%

Petrópolis
27.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.1%

28.3%

19.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.3%

27.7%

19.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

São Gonçalo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that São Gonçalo's form might have worsened.

Petrópolis has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Petrópolis's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Gonçalo than the current prediction. (+11.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for São Gonçalo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Petrópolis than the current prediction. (-8.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Petrópolis, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

São Gonçalo - Petrópolis Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
14', 1 - 0, Pedro China ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
54', Digao 🟥,
85', 1 - 1, Lastra ⚽,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Carioca 2 (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 11 in the zone Relegation ~ Carioca B1).

São Gonçalo is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

In recent matches, Petrópolis has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

São Gonçalo will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, São Gonçalo won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Including home match between the teams, São Gonçalo won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- São Gonçalo EC
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca 2
28.06.25	America RJ - São Gonçalo	1:1 ✺
21.06.25	São Gonçalo - Resende	0:0 ✺
14.06.25	Audax Rio - São Gonçalo	0:0 ✺
08.06.25	São Gonçalo - Cabofriense	2:1 ✺
04.06.25	Duque de Caxias - São Gonçalo	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 TTTWW
- Petrópolis FC
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca 2
29.06.25	Petrópolis - Resende	1:1 ✺
22.06.25	Cabofriense - Petrópolis	1:1 ✺
07.06.25	Americano Rio de Janeiro - Petrópolis	1:0 ✺
04.06.25	Petrópolis - Araruama	1:1 ✺
31.05.25	America RJ - Petrópolis	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.5 TTLTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Carioca 2
07.11.20	São Gonçalo - Petrópolis	1:1

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