Match Info

Serie C - Group B - Round 4

Date: 14 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadio Libero Liberati (Terni)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 253


	Ternana		Carpi

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.71	3.3	4.2	Watch
	1.82	3.3	4.15
	1.76	3.54	4.37
	1.32	5.02	8.56	Watch
	1.9	3.53	3.84	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.7 ↓ (2.29)	3.74 ↑ (3.4)	5.02 ↑ (2.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Ternana
55.7%

Draw
25.4%

Carpi
18.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.7%

27.4%

31.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.1%

27.7%

31.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ternana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ternana's performance.

Carpi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Carpi might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ternana than the current prediction. (-14.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ternana that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carpi than the current prediction. (+12.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Carpi could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	25%	0%

Ternana - Carpi Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Ternana will win (votes: 3 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Ternana (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
71. D'Alterio F. (G) 20. Donati F. 13. Maestrelli A. 87. Martella B. 2. Bianay Balcot C. 4. Vallocchia A. 16. Garetto M. 43. Ndrecka A. 30. Orellana M. 27. Ferrante A. 9. Dubickas E.	1. Sorzi M. (G) 4. Zagnoni D. 17. Lombardi L. 19. Rossini M. 7. Cecotti T. 5. Figoli M. 29. Rosetti M. 70. Arcopinto A. 72. Cortesi M. 10. Stanzani L. 9. Gerbi E.
Substitutes
36. Biondini G. 11. Brignola E. 38. Bruti T. 70. Durmush M. 10. Leonardi S. 29. Longoni M. 8. McJannet E. 14. Meccariello B. 12. Morlupo A. (G) 80. Proietti M. 7. Romeo F. 5. Tripi F. 34. Turella M. 33. Valenti M. 1. Vitali T. (G)	8. Amayah P. 11. Casarini F. 20. Forte R. 18. Mahrani Y. 6. Panelli T. 90. Perta A. A. (G) 80. Pietra N. 33. Pitti E. 3. Rigo M. 23. Sall A. 22. Scacchetti A. (G) 2. Verza N. 77. Visani R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
4', 1 - 0, Ferrante A. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Gerbi E. 🟨,
51', Cecotti T. 🟨,
57', Stanzani L. ↓, Rigo M. ↑,
63', 2 - 0, Sorzi M. (Own goal),
68', Figoli M. ↓, Amayah P. ↑,
68', Cecotti T. ↓, Casarini F. ↑,
68', Arcopinto A. ↓, Forte R. ↑,
68', Bianay Balcot C. ↓, Meccariello B. ↑,
69', Ferrante A. ↓, Leonardi S. ↑,
78', Orellana M. ↓, Tripi F. ↑,
78', Rosetti M. ↓, Pietra N. ↑,
87', Pietra N. 🟨,
88', Dubickas E. ↓, Romeo F. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ternana won 2.

Ternana has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Carpi is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Carpi may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Ternana is considered a favorite.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Ternana won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 10:10. (average 0.9:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Ternana won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:2. (average 0.2:0.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ternana Calcio
Italian Serie C Group B
07.09.25	Rimini - Ternana	1:4 ✺
31.08.25	Ternana - Ascoli	0:2 ✺
22.08.25	Livorno - Ternana	1:0 ✺
Coppa Italia
09.08.25	Virtus Entella - Ternana	4:0 ✺
Club Friendly
02.08.25	Ternana - Benevento	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WLLL?
- Carpi FC
Italian Serie C Group B
06.09.25	Carpi - Campobasso	2:2 ✺
31.08.25	Pianese - Carpi	0:1 ✺
23.08.25	Carpi - Juventus U23	1:1 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie C
17.08.25	Carpi - Trento	1:0 penalties ✺
Club Friendly
10.08.25	Union ArzignanoChiampo - Carpi	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.5 TWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group B
06.04.25	Ternana - Carpi	0:1
25.11.24	Carpi - Ternana	1:2
Coppa Italia
04.08.18	Carpi - Ternana	0:2
Italian Serie B
29.03.18	Carpi - Ternana	2:1
30.10.17	Ternana - Carpi	0:0
29.04.17	Ternana - Carpi	0:0
10.12.16	Carpi - Ternana	1:1

Upcoming Matches